The National League Championship Series gets the spotlight on Wednesday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets resume their series at Citi Field.
Our experts have two MLB best bets and prop picks for Jose Iglesias and Walker Buehler in NLCS Game 3.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/10/NYMvLAD-Game-4.jpg” linktext=”Dodgers vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds for NLCS Game 4 on Thursday, October 17″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers-vs-new-york-mets-prediction-picks-odds-nlcs-game-4-thursday-october-17″][/relatedarticle]
MLB Best Bets & Prop Picks for NLCS Game 3 Tonight
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:08 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:08 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
|
||
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tony Sartori’s Jose Iglesias Prop Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jose Iglesias Over 0.5 Hits (-210)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” homename=”New York Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Wednesday, Oct. 16″ time=”8:08 p.m. ET” network=”FS1″ bookname=”BetRivers” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/698811_BetRiver@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betrivers”][/gameheader]
By Tony Sartori
The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Walker Buehler in Game 3, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. Over 16 regular-season starts, Buehler posted a 1-6 record with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally poor as the right-hander ranked in the bottom-fifth of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. I want to specifically target that poor .266 xBA by backing a hitter from the New York Mets: Jose Iglesias.
Iglesias is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, posting a .337 BA this season while also ranking in the top quarter of the league in xBA. He’s recorded 42 hits over his last 31 games, posting a .344 BA over that stretch.
This success is likely to continue against Buehler, a pitcher whom Iglesias boasts a .400 BA against through 10 career plate appearances.
Pick: Jose Iglesias Over 0.5 Hits (-210 | Play to -225)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”BJ Cunningham’s Walker Buehler Prop Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Walker Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” homename=”New York Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Wednesday, Oct. 16″ time=”8:08 p.m. ET” network=”FS1″ bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
There are a lot of red flags in Walker Buehler’s profile at the moment. He probably wouldn’t even be starting for the Dodgers if their rotation wasn’t decimated by injuries.
He allowed six runs against the Padres in the NLDS and had major issues with his fastball. The Padres had nine hard hits off of him and six of them were off of his heater — not surprising given how poor he was with it during the regular season.
During the regular season, his fastball allowed a .446 xwOBA to opposing hitters. He typically likes to use it along with his cutter in on right handed hitters, but it hasn’t been effective as righties have a .350 wOBA against him this season.
The few times that Buehler has pitched well have come at Dodger Stadium. Pitching on the road has been a complete disaster. In a little over 30 innings this season, he has a 5.24 xFIP.
The most concerning thing is he hasn’t been able to strike batters out like he did in the past. He didn’t have a single strikeout against Padres in Game 3, and over the second half of the season, he only had 18.8% strikeout rate.
If Dave Roberts learns from what happened against the Padres, he will only allow Buehler to see the order two times through.
If that is the case his strikeout projections should be at 3.4, so there isn’t any reason why this total should be set at 4.5.
Pick: Walker Buehler Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”235580″ date=”20241016″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] |