2024 NFL MVP Odds
| Players | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +300 |
| Lamar Jackson | +550 |
| C.J. Stroud | +600 |
| Josh Allen | +700 |
| Brock Purdy | +1300 |
| Jayden Daniels | +1400 |
| Sam Darnold | +1600 |
| Joe Burrow | +1800 |
| Jordan Love | +1800 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +3000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3000 |
| Dak Prescott | +5000 |
| Caleb Williams | +5000 |
| Derrick Henry | +5000 |
Odds according to BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon.
Patrick Mahomes continues to hold his perch atop the NFL MVP odds leaderboard despite a middling season.
Why? Simple: His team is undefeated.
MVP winners tend to be quarterbacks from No. 1 seeds — No. 2 seeds at worst. The Chiefs and Vikings are the only remaining undefeated teams. Voters also love repeat winners, but not ones who go back-to-back. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was last year’s trophy holder.
So, despite his position as just the No. 12 quarterback at EPA/play + CPOE (expected points added per play + completion percentage over expected, the best arbiter in deciding the MVP), Mahomes is still the favorite because his team is winning. Boring, I know.
This explains why Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is in the mix, too. While Darnold has had a resurgent year, that’s because his previous bases of reference had been so low. He still sits outside the top 10 at EPA/play + CPOE and a lot of his success can be boiled down to schematic advantages more than true MVP play.
Darnold will need a few massive performances to climb this ranking any further, but he’s in the top 7 in MVP odds because the Vikings haven’t lost yet. Once that happens, expect him to fall mightily.
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The true No. 1 player according to EPA/play + CPOE is Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who shot up this odds board from +10000 after Week 3 to the sixth-shortest odds at +1400 after Week 6.
The only issue with him and this award is team success. But if winning is pushed aside, he fits all the criteria: preseason longshot (the trend of late), great numbers without many turnovers and a No. 1 slot in EPA/play + CPOE.
Voters will likely throw that all by the wayside if the Commanders don’t finish as a top seed, which is why Mahomes has maintained his lead in the market amid shaky individual performances.
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