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north texas mean green vs fau owls-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday october 12

North Texas vs FAU Predictions, Odds, College Football Week 7 Picks For Saturday, Oct. 12

If you haven’t tuned into the AAC yet, you’ve been missing some of the more impressive programs in the country. One of them will be on display Saturday in Boca Raton, Florida, where the FAU Owls (2-3) will host the North Texas Mean Green (4-1). Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

The Mean Green have rolled over their opposition this season as they have an average margin of victory of 22 points in their four wins.

Speaking of the opposition, the FAU Owls come into this matchup after a bye. However, they did gain some momentum the last time we saw them, picking up their second win of the season over Wagner.

With two weeks to prepare, will FAU be able to combat the Mean Green’s aerial attack? Let’s find out as I make my North Texas vs FAU predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.

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  • North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Picks: North Texas -5

My North Texas vs FAU best bet is on the Mean Green to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Odds, Spread, Lines

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  • North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Point Spread: North Texas -5 (-112) · Florida Atlantic +5 (-108)
  • North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Total: Over/Under 59
  • North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Moneyline: North Texas -205 · Florida Atlantic +170

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North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Expect Offense to Keep Rolling

We know what to expect from the Mean Green offense. They have thrown the ball at the 29th-highest rate in the country and have done so with great success. North Texas ranks 16th in completion percentage and 11th in yards per pass allowed.

However, FAU’s secondary appears solid on paper. The Owls rank eighth in opponent completion percentage allowed and 65th in yards per pass allowed — though only 30% of the plays run against them have been passes.

They also rank 79th in PFF’s coverage grading, so it’s safe to say the Mean Green offense will be the first true test for FAU’s secondary.

Additionally, the Mean Green could find success on the ground against FAU’s defense if they choose to run the ball. While they rank 106th in rush rate, they have an average of five yards per rush, which is 34th in the nation.

The rushing attack could be something FAU overlooks and will pay major dividends for the Mean Green as they outrank the Owls 106th to 126th in line yards. Don’t expect the Mean Green offense to slow down as the Owls are largely untested defensively.

Florida Atlantic Owls Betting Preview: Can Passing Attack Step Up?

On the offensive side, FAU’s scheme is a stark contrast to North Texas’. The Owls have run the ball nearly 56% of the time, the 40th-highest rate in the country.

They’ve done so with a dynamic running back tandem in Zuberi Mobley and CJ Campbell Jr., who have combined to average 5.3 yards per rush and score nine touchdowns.

We will see them a lot in this matchup, but their success is far from guaranteed. Despite the big-play ability of their running backs, the Owls are only 120th in rushing success rate.

FAU will also face a North Texas defense that will be able to key in on the run game, as the Owls rank 124th in yards per pass and 95th in opponent completion percentage.

Expect the Mean Green to focus on slowing down the Owls’ rushing attack and forcing them into passing situations on third down, where FAU ranks 131st in conversion rate.

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North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and Florida Atlantic match up statistically:

North Texas Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 117 107
Line Yards 106 126
Pass Success 29 35
Havoc 37 61
Finishing Drives 55 79
Quality Drives 69 63
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 120 92
Line Yards 65 87
Pass Success 105 62
Havoc 69 119
Finishing Drives 125 65
Quality Drives 103 91
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 22 122
PFF Coverage 39 79
Special Teams SP+ 74 105
Middle 8 15 75
Seconds per Play 24.9 (23) 26.6 (53)
Rush Rate 45% (113) 59% (45)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How To Make College Football Picks For My North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

We have seen this number bounce back and forth between 6.5 and 7 all week, but the side you should grab is North Texas -6.5. Their offense should have plenty of success against an unproven FAU secondary.

On the other side of the ball, it will be up to the Mean Green to change the narrative of their rush defense against a one-dimensional FAU offense. If they can get stops on first and second down, there will be a number of three-and-outs from the Owls.

Back the Mean Green to cover.

Pick: North Texas -5 (-112, DraftKings)

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”North Texas vs Florida Atlantic Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: FAU Stadium
Date: Saturday, Oct 12
Kickoff Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN2

North Texas travels to FAU Stadium to take on FAU at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 on Saturday, October 12.

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Doug Ziefel

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