It’s only fitting the Vanderbilt mascot is related to locomotives. The swagger of Diego Pavia and one of the biggest upsets of the season has the Vanderbilt hype train at max capacity.
But as a fellow nerd who may have looked into attending Vanderbilt back in his day once said, “With great power comes great responsibility.”
The Commodores have been gifted the power of the national spotlight, but now comes the responsibility of attempting to handle success.
The challenge remains high for Vanderbilt (3-2) as it hits the road for Lexington. The Commodores are a double-digit underdog for the third straight week, facing a Kentucky team (3-2) that also pulled off a Top-10 upset this season.
Will the Commodores get caught still basking in their glory, or can they ride the momentum wave into a second-straight upset bid? Read more for my Vanderbilt vs Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under
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- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Spread: Kentucky -12.5
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Over/Under: 44.5 points
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky ML -580
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Pick: Kentucky 1H -7
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Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Predictions & Picks
My Vanderbilt vs Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the first-half spread.
Spread
Pass
Moneyline
PASS
Over/Under
PASS
Vanderbilt Football Betting Preview
Unless you’ve lived under a rock or at the bottom of the Cumberland River next to the uprights that once called FirstBank Stadium home, you’re well aware of Vanderbilt recording the biggest win in program history last weekend.
The Commodores didn’t just beat an Alabama team as 23-point underdogs, but they did so in convincing wire-to-wire fashion.
One of the chief catalysts for that win and Vandy’s improved play this season has been the transfer portal prize of quarterback Pavia. The former New Mexico State passer is one of only four quarterbacks nationally with at least 100 attempts who has yet to throw an interception, and he’s passed for multiple touchdowns against all four of Vanderbilt’s Power Four opponents.
Even more crucial than his arm, however, are his legs.
Pavia has recorded at least 13 rushes in every game this season, forcing defenses to stay honest and from just dropping back. Without Pavia, the Commodore ground game has been otherwise unspectacular, ranking just 69th in Rush Success.
Defensively, while Vanderbilt has fared well at the line of scrimmage, the Commodores’ defense has been susceptible to home-run plays. In the SEC, only Florida has allowed more offensive plays of at least 20 yards in length than Vanderbilt.
The Commodores are most vulnerable to big pass plays, where they rank 108th nationally with 11 pass plays allowed of at least 20 yards.
Kentucky Football Betting Preview
Oh, how quickly we forget top-10 upsets.
It was just two weeks ago that Kentucky picked up a top-10 win of its own over Ole Miss in Oxford, but when Alabama is upset seven days later, Kentucky’s three-point victory over the Rebels is expeditiously relegated to second fiddle.
The win over Ole Miss wasn’t the first time this season, either, that the Wildcats have proven a worthy foe against college football’s best. Just two weeks earlier, Kentucky held a fourth-quarter lead over then-No. 1 Georgia.
The biggest reason for Kentucky’s ability to hang with the upper echelon of the FBS has been its defense. The Wildcats rank third in the SEC in total defense and have one of the strongest defensive fronts in the conference.
Kentucky’s defense ranks seventh and 28th in Line Yards and Rush Success, respectively, and managed to hold both Georgia and Ole Miss to just 3.6 yards per carry.
The Wildcats bring it with the pass rush as well, where they rank 11th in Havoc and average two sacks per game.
While the Wildcats expected a major upgrade in the passing game with the addition of quarterback Brock Vandagriff, running the ball down opponents’ throats is still the preferred M.O. of the Bush Hamdan offense.
Despite the preference for running, however, the Wildcats aren’t super efficient in that category. Kentucky is last in the SEC with six rushing touchdowns and 14th in the conference with 3.72 yards per carry.
The slow run game is, however, better than the Kentucky passing attack.
The aforementioned Vandagriff only has four passing touchdowns this season and completes fewer than 60 percent of his passes, but he is coming off his season-best outing against Ole Miss, in which he passed for 243 yards and a score.
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Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky vs Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 69 | 28 |
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| Line Yards | 101 | 7 |
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| Pass Success | 22 | 68 |
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| Havoc | 62 | 11 |
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| Finishing Drives | 42 | 45 |
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| Quality Drives | 30 | 15 |
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Kentucky Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 22 | 20 |
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| Line Yards | 68 | 21 |
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| Pass Success | 119 | 79 |
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| Havoc | 122 | 42 |
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| Finishing Drives | 61 | 111 |
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| Quality Drives | 42 | 92 |
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Pace of Play / Other
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| PFF Tackling | 88 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 97 | 63 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 28 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 15 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.5 (126) | 30.0 (123) |
| Rush Rate | 66% (9) | 63% (26) |
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It almost seems all too obvious. How could Vanderbilt not possibly be flat after the week it just had?
Vanderbilt’s win was obviously impressive, and it probably deserves to be better than its 3-2 record suggests, but this is just an impossible spot to come flying out of the gates for.
The Commodores needed the best game of the season from Pavia, and he delivered.
But the Alabama secondary is one of the worst in the SEC. The Kentucky pass rush is going to fluster Pavia all game, and the Commodores won’t come anywhere close to scoring 40 points in consecutive weeks.
Kentucky hasn’t played inspiring offense all season, but this Vanderbilt defense is ripe for being picked by explosive plays.
The Wildcats will keep hammering away on the ground and are bound to break a couple of big running plays. Vanderbilt will likely be more emotionally flat in the first half, so grab the first-half line at a touchdown while you can.
Pick: Kentucky 1H -7
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends
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Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Weather
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