Expert PRO Projections reveal an intriguing pattern on NFL TD picks for Week 5.
This week, the focus shifts to long shot bets, as several players offer significant value according to proprietary projections driven by NFL expert Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen and the Action Analytics Team.
While we’ll cover the top touchdown scorers separately, this article exclusively highlights these long-shot bets; prices are only around for so long, so subscribers, head on over to PRO Props to get the full scope.
In particular, three standout picks come in at odds of +600 or better, spanning both early and afternoon games such as Panthers vs. Bears, and Cardinals vs. 49ers.
NFL TD Picks: Long Shot Bets for Week 5
Using PRO Projections, our experts recommend placing bets with a minimum 3.5% edge. Notably, choices with payouts of +600, +800, and +1500 are above the threshold.
Here’s a closer look at these high-value NFL Week 5 touchdown picks, starting with the most lucrative 15/1 payout.
NFL TD Pick for Panthers vs. Bears
Our first long-shot bet of NFL Week 5 is Carolina Panthers quarterback Andy Dalton.
With odds standing at a generous +1500 on FanDuel, Dalton’s potential payout is impressive.
According to PRO Projections, his chances of scoring a touchdown are calculated at 10%, resulting in a valuable 3.8% edge.
PRO Props Pick: Andy Dalton to Score a TD (+1500)
NFL TD Pick No. 1 for Cardinals vs. 49ers
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, meanwhile is the largest edge from our projections!
With odds of +600 on FanDuel, these long-shot odds translate to an implied probability of 14.3%. Projections suggest a 20% probability of Purdy finding the end zone, giving an impressive 5.7% edge. Facing the Cardinals, whose defense has struggled in previous weeks, presents a favorable scenario for Purdy.
PRO Props Pick: Brock Purdy to Score a TD (+600)
NFL TD Prediction No. 2 for Cardinals vs. 49ers
Finally, another intriguing 49ers pick: fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
With betting odds at +800 as seen on Caesars, Juszczyk’s touchdown odds carry an implied probability of 11.1%.
Projected to score with a 14% chance, Juszczyk represents a 3.9% edge. Known for his versatility and goal-line usage, he could play a pivotal role in capitalizing against the Cardinals’ defense.
PRO Props Pick: Kyle Juszczyk to Score a TD (+800)
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high-grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.