Today marks the exciting beginning of a handful of MLB Division Series, and we’re fully focused on our top home run picks.
As we dive into the postseason, three standout hitters have caught our attention, making them prime candidates to go deep in tonight’s games.
These intriguing matchups include the Mets squaring off against the Phillies and the Royals taking on the Yankees.
Let’s delve into these exciting Game 1 matchups and unveil our top home run picks for the day.
Home Run Picks, MLB HR Predictions for 10/2
Our selections are backed by PRO Projections, a proprietary system that leverages expert insights, statistical analysis, and betting market comparisons to unearth valuable betting edges.
These projections are particularly adept at identifying players who offer substantial upside in various markets, including home runs.
We recommend placing bets when our projected edge is 3.5% or greater, ensuring a strategic advantage that could lead to more successful outcomes.
Tonight’s games are set to unfold in two hitter-friendly venues: Citizens Bank Park, home of the Phillies, and Yankee Stadium, where the Yankees play. Both ballparks rank in the top five for home runs above average this season, making them perfect settings for potential home run fireworks.
Home Run Pick No. 1 for Mets vs. Phillies: BetJose Iglesias
Among our notable picks, Jose Iglesias of the Mets catches the eye with a fantastic opportunity at BetMGM.
With odds set at +1450, these odds imply a modest 6.45% chance of Iglesias homering. However, PRO Projections elevate his chances to a compelling 15%, resulting in an impressive 8.3% betting edge.
This discrepancy makes Iglesias the top choice among our home run picks.
PRO Props Edge: Jose Iglesias HR (+1450)
Home Run Prediction for Royals vs. Yankees: Bet Bobby Witt
Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. also features prominently in our lineup of home run predictions.
At FanDuel, his odds to homer are set at +475, while our projections suggest a more fair price would be near +325. His talent and potential make him a solid addition to today’s home run picks.
PRO Props Edge: Bobby Witt Jr. HR (+475)
Home Run Prediction No. 2 for Mets vs. Phillies: Bet Pete Alonso
Finally, Pete Alonso of the Mets is a name to watch closely. Fresh off his heroic performance in the wild card round, where he launched a pivotal go-ahead homer against the Brewers, Alonso is poised for more success.
His odds are listed at +500 with BetMGM, yet our projections suggest they should be closer to +338, showcasing a 6.2% edge.
PRO Props Edge: Pete Alonso (+500)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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