Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez Odds
Check out the Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
On the ESPNews-televised prelims of this weekend’s UFC 307 card, Hernandez steps in as a late replacement for Nate Landwehr as he meets former LFA champion Hubbard.
Is this short-notice lightweight booking just what Hernandez needs to get back on track?
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Clint MacLean’s Tale of the Tape
| Hubbard | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-7 | 14-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:23 | 9:50 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’9″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 156 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/22/1991 | 10/1/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.74 | 4.66 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.75 | 1.06 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 31% |
| TD Def | 65% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Alexander Hernandez has fallen on hard times. The wrestling powerhouse made his UFC debut with a bang by absolutely flatlining top contender Beneil Dariush. The 32-year-old looked like he was headed for stardom.
However, Hernandez finds himself 2-4 in his past six fights, and after a failed attempt to drop to pounds, “The Great Ape” will be returning to the lightweight division at UFC 307.
Austin Hubbard is similarly struggling in the UFC, but he has new life after a run on “The Ultimate Fighter 31.” Hubbard is 1-1 in his return to the big show and is coming off a victory that has to be good for his confidence.
This fight is very interesting because Hernandez is arguably getting a slight step down in competition, but he is again fighting his nightmare matchup. Hubbard is a cardio machine who trains at elevation, and we have seen that Hernandez can slow down in fights, which tends to spell trouble for him.
Hernandez has recently run into cardio machines such as Billy Quarantillo and Bill Algeo, and in those fights, he has not fared well after strong starts.
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Hubbard vs. Hernandez Pick & Prediction
Alexander Hernandez is a good hammer and a bad nail, but the fact is I feel that he has fought a much higher level of competition than Hubbard.
Although Hubbard, on paper, is a bad matchup for him, Hernandez can always rely on his wrestling. And with the return to 155 pounds, he is much stronger and can manage his energy better.
I expect Hernandez will do whatever it takes to keep his roster spot. Laying chalk feels gross, so let’s go with what I see as the most valuable prop in the winning-method market.
The Pick: Alexander Hernandez by decision (+175 at FanDuel)
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