We continue the Week 5 slate with five Saturday afternoon college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 5, here’s the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 9-13 (40.9%)
- Overall: 108-83-1 (56.6%)
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College Football Picks for Saturday Afternoon
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Western Michigan Broncos” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png” secondfullname=”Marshall Thundering Herd” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png”][/teammatchup] | 3:30 p.m. | Western Michigan +5.5 |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Akron Zips” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/akr.png” secondfullname=”Ohio Bobcats” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ohi.png”][/teammatchup] | 3:30 p.m. | Akron +12.5 |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#5″ firstfullname=”North Carolina Tar Heels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nc.png” secondfullname=”Duke Blue Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/dukd.png”][/teammatchup] | 4 p.m. | North Carolina +3 |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Western Michigan +5.5 at Marshall” subtext=”3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/588689_wmich2.png”][/subheader]
On the surface, this profiles as a potentially fatal situation spot for Marshall. After back-to-back physical games on the road against Virginia Tech and Ohio State, it comes back home to take on a MAC school before opening up league play against Appalachian State.
Conversely, Western Michigan should come in much fresher following a bye week after playing a laugher at home against Bethune-Cookman.
That extra time off will not only help from a rest and preparation perspective, but it also may have enabled the Broncos to get healthier. You could see the return of three of their best offensive players from injury in All-MAC center Jacob Gideon, star running back Jalen Buckley and All-MAC wide receiver Kenneth Womack.
Womack has yet to make his season debut after an arm injury late in the summer but should be about ready for game action. Meanwhile, Buckley — the engine of the offense — missed the previous two games, while Gideon got hurt on the first series against Ohio State.
Gideon’s return would enable fellow All-MAC mate Addison West to slide back to guard, giving the Broncos a very formidable interior.
Coming into the season, I thought WMU had a real shot to be a sleeper in the MAC in large part due to one of the nation’s most experienced rosters that also added some P4 talent and a few starters from lower levels.
The Broncos played Wisconsin super tight in the opener in Madison before a bad break late on a muffed punt return flipped the game on its head, which definitely should give them confidence here. Things didn’t go as well in Columbus, but the Broncos were simply overmatched from a talent perspective and were missing a few key starters.
Marshall used three quarterbacks in its opener and then again last week after Stone Earle left with cramps. He seems to be the guy moving forward. While the former North Texas transfer is serviceable, I’m not in love with the surrounding cast.
I project this spread close to a field goal, and the situational spot is ideal.
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Marshall head coach Charles Huff is just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a home favorite against FBS foes, failing to cover by over six points per game.
My projection: Western Michigan +2.9
Pick: Western Michigan +4 or Better
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Akron +12.5 at Ohio” subtext=”3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/akr.png”][/subheader]
Here’s your trash pick of the week, so please skip to the next section if you don’t like frolicking in dumpsters like myself.
This looks like a great spot to back the Zips, who I wanted to target early in MAC play after a grueling nonconference schedule that included games against Rutgers, South Carolina and Ohio State. As you might imagine, the results weren’t pretty, but the Zips never had a chance from a talent gap perspective. Plus, they were friskier than the final scores may indicate.
Now, they get to kick off conference play against a team more in their weight class.
Despite the early-season struggles, I do believe Akron has a sneaky good defense — for MAC standards, of course.
Last year, after getting blown out by Kentucky in Week 3, the Zips allowed fewer than 20 points in regulation in five of their final nine games.
While they only won two games for a third straight season, they fielded a much more competitive team that went 0-3 in overtime.
And even though the skill-position group took a step back, transfer Ben Finley raises the floor a bit at a quarterback position that was a disaster in the second half of 2023.
More importantly, I’m super low on this Ohio squad, which has just been crushed in the portal in recent seasons.
The Bobcats looked feisty in the opener against Syracuse, but the Orange just refused to set the edge against transfer Anthony Tyus, who ran for 200 yards to enable the Bobcats to hang around a bit in a 16-point loss.
They also beat South Alabama at home in Week 2, but the Jaguars were without starting quarterback Gio Lopez, so that win definitely comes with an asterisk.
Since that South Alabama win, things have not progressed well.
In Week 3 against Morgan State, starting quarterback Parker Navarro got benched after throwing three interceptions in the second quarter. He then missed last week’s blowout loss to Kentucky with an injury. While he should return for the MAC opener, his health is certainly worth mentioning with a very murky backup quarterback situation.
Ohio didn’t play as brutal of a nonconference slate but did face a pair of P4 teams and came away with more injury concerns than the Zips. That could matter here since MAC teams don’t generally have great depth — this Bobcats team is no exception.
Lastly, keep in mind that Ohio doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage, and these campuses are just a few hours apart. In what I expect to be a lower-scoring game, give me the stinky double-digit dog.
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Touchdown-plus road underdogs in MAC play have gone 38-21 ATS (64.4%) in games with a total of less than 47, covering by about a field goal per game.
My Projection: Akron +9.8
Pick: Akron +11 or Better
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”North Carolina +3 at Duke” subtext=”4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2″ logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nc.png”][/subheader]
I’m buying low on the Heels after getting embarrassed on their home field by James Madison last week in a game where they allowed a school-record 70 points.
Maybe this team quits on Mack Brown (or he quits on them), but I’d expect a max effort to kick off ACC play after such a humiliating effort.
More importantly, I just can’t get to this number even after downgrading UNC significantly for that performance after three straight covers to start the year.
The Heels have turned to their third quarterback of the season in Jacolby Criswell, who transferred back to Chapel Hill after a stop at Arkansas. However, he certainly wasn’t the problem last week, throwing for 475 yards while giving the passing attack much more juice than Conner Harrell.
Plus, UNC still boasts one of the nation’s best running backs in Omarion Hampton, and I actually think they upgraded their offensive line despite losing four starters around star right guard Willie Lampkin.
This is also a fade of Duke. Yes, the Blue Devils have jumped out to a 4-0 start, but take a closer look at those wins:
- Elon by 23 (led only 13-0 midway through third quarter)
- Northwestern by six (in double overtime after tying it late)
- UConn by five (trailed in fourth quarter)
- MTSU by 28 (Blue Raiders down a handful of starters)
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Color me not impressed against a laughable schedule.
Plus, not only did MTSU have multiple starters out on both sides of the ball, but that 28-point margin was very misleading with Duke having only 45 more net yards.
The Blue Devils scored touchdowns on drives of one, 14, 20, and 24 following four Blue Raider turnovers inside their own 25-yard line. Duke had one long touchdown drive the entire game in which it benefited from a roughing the punter call followed by a fumble recovery.
Duke can’t run the ball at all, ranking 131st in Rush Success Rate, and UNC won’t have to worry about a mobile quarterback this week with Maalik Murphy, who doesn’t like to run.
Therefore, it comes down to cleaning up all of the miscommunication and myriad of coverage busts on the back end.
I trust new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins to fix some of those issues this week and really loved all of the quotes I saw from both him and the defensive players, who all took accountability after last Saturday’s debacle.
On the season, Duke ranks in the top 10 nationally in turnover margin, while UNC sits in the bottom 10. Manny Diaz has his defensive unit causing Havoc as usual, with the Blue Devils leading the country with a whopping 11.5 tackles for loss per game.
However, they really haven’t played a competent offense to date, so don’t be surprised if some turnover regression works in the Heels’ favor.
I happily took the field goal in a game I make a coin-flip, as I expect an inspired effort from the UNC defense.
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It doesn’t happen often, but road dogs have gone 22-11 ATS (66.7%) after allowing 70 or more points.
My Projection: UNC +0.5
Pick: UNC +3 or Better
