The MLB regular season came to an end for 28 teams on Sunday — but not for the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, who are set to play a doubleheader on Monday at Truist Park that will determine the final two NL wild-card spots. First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN2, SNY and Bally Sports South.
Mets vs Braves odds for Game 1 on Monday have the Braves as -152 moneyline favorites and the Mets as +128 underdogs. The over/under is 8 (-102o / -120u). The Braves are +138 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Mets are -166 to cover the spread (+1.5).
The MLB playoff scenarios are simple: If the Mets and Braves split this doubleheader, both NL East rivals get in. However, if one of them gets swept, then the Arizona Diamondbacks get one of the wild-card slots. In Game 1, the Mets will hand the ball to Tylor Megill while the Braves go with Spencer Schwellenbach. Find my Game 1 preview and Mets vs Braves prediction and moneyline picks for Monday, September 30, below.
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- Mets vs Braves picks: Mets Moneyline (+140 | Play to +135)
My Mets vs Braves best bet is on the Mets moneyline, where I see value at +140. The best line is available at bet365, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Odds, Predictions, Picks
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- Mets-Braves Moneyline: Mets +128 | Braves -152
- Mets-Braves Total: Over/Under 8 (-102o / -120u)
- Mets-Braves Spread: Mets +1.5 (-166) | Braves -1.5 (+138)
[expertpickswidget league=”mlb” gameid=”234996″ date=”20240930″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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Probable Starting Pitchers for Mets at Braves
| RHP Tylor Megill (NYM) | Stat | RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.98 / 4.05 | ERA /xERA | 3.47 / 3.42 |
| 3.36 / 3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 3.38 / 3.39 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 17% | K-BB% | 20.8% |
| 38.9% | GB% | 41% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 97 | Location+ | 107 |
Tony Sartori’s Mets vs Braves Preview, Prediction
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mets Betting Preview: Tylor Megill On Heater ” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/new-york-mets” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Tylor Megill enters this game in phenomenal form, which is why New York is turning to the right-hander.
The right-hander has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his last six outings (five starts), posting a 2-0 record with a 1.98 ERA over that stretch. Megill last faced the Braves on July 27, a forgettable outing in which he allowed four runs over six innings in a Mets shutout loss. He turned his season around shortly after.
Following Megill is a bullpen that ranks 12th in FIP and fifth in xFIP. This pitching staff should receive plenty of run support as the Mets rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Braves Betting Preview: High-Pressure Moment for Schwellenbach?” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/atlanta-braves” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
That success at the dish could continue against the Spencer Schwellenbach. It’s not that he’s a bad pitcher, but this is a massive moment for the rookie hurler who is still just 20 starts into his big-league career.
That’s a lot of pressure placed on the 24-year-old, especially when pairing the moment with New York’s powerhouse lineup. Schwellenbach also surrenders hard-hit balls at a 39.2% clip, which places him below the league average.
While I’m down on Schwellenbach in this spot, it’s worth noting that he faced the Mets twice in the regular season — to much success. He won both of those games, racking up 15 strikeouts and allowing just five hits over 14 innings of one-run ball.
Like New York, Atlanta possesses a strong lineup led by Michael Harris II and Matt Olson, but they could struggle against Megill considering how dominant he has been recently.
Mets vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
It’s worth taking a shot on the Mets moneyline at +140.
The hitting advantage clearly goes to the Mets, who outrank the Braves in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
Meanwhile, this is a high-pressure spot for Schwellenbach. At the same time, Megill has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball.
That just leaves the relief pitching — a slight edge to Atlanta for me. However, the Mets bullpen also ranks in the top 12 in the league in both FIP and xFIP, so that differential is not enough to scare me off the +140 return on New York.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+140 | Play to +135)
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Moneyline
I’m betting the Mets’ moneyline in this game.
Pick: Mets moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I’m going to pass on the run line. While I like New York at +1.5, I have no interest in laying -140.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
I’m also going to pass on the over/under. There are too many contradicting variables for my liking in this market.
Pick: Pass
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mets vs Braves Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- 85% of the bets and 90% of the money is on the Braves moneyline
- 76% of bets and 74% of the money is on the total to go over (7.5)
- 80% of bets and 52% of the money is on the Braves to cover the spread (-1.5)
Mets Trends
- Mets are 40-38 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone UNDER in 3 of Mets’ last 5 games
Braves Trends
- The totals have gone UNDER in 5 of Braves’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone UNDER in 54 of Braves’ 78 last games at home
Mets-Braves Game Info: How to Watch Game 1, Start Time, Channels, More
| Location: | Truist Park |
| Date: | Monday, September 30, 2024 |
| Time: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN2; SNY; Bally Sports South |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mets-Braves Weather Forecast: Partly Cloudy” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”234996″ date=”2024-09-30″][/gameforecast]
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