The Seattle Mariners refuse to die as they were victorious on Monday in the series opener against the Houston Astros. The Mariners find themselves 1 1/2 games out of the final AL wild-card spot and four games behind the Astros in the AL West.
The Astros enter Tuesday with a magic number of just two to clinch the AL West. They’ll be trying to do so without slugger Yordan Alvarez, who’s been diagnosed with a right knee sprain and will not play in this series. A tough task considering the Mariners’ probable pitcher for Tuesday is the formidable Logan Gilbert.
How does this impact my Mariners vs Astros prediction — a moneyline pick — for Tuesday, September 24?
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mariners-Astros Predictions” center=”true” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/seattle-mariners” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/houston-astros” link2follow=”true”][/subheader]
- Mariners-Astros pick: Mariners F5 Moneyline (+106)
My Mariners vs Astros best bet for Tuesday is the Mariners first five innings (F5) moneyline, where I see value at +106. The best line is available at FanDuel at the time of writing, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Astros Odds
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- Mariners-Astros Moneyline: Mariners +110 | Astros -130
- Mariners-Astros Total: Over/Under 7 (-115o / -105u)
- Mariners-Astros Spread: Mariners +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
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Mariners vs Astros Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-11 | W-L | 14-7 |
| 4.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 3.24 / 3.13 | ERA /xERA | 2.85 / 3.30 |
| 3.19 / 3.15 | FIP / xFIP | 3.18 / 3.07 |
| 0.90 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 22.5% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 60.5% |
| 120 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 101 | Location+ | 97 |
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Preview for Tuesday
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Mariners Betting Preview: M’s Turn to Logan Gilbert” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/seattle-mariners” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
The Mariners have a shot at pulling off an improbable feat. They looked dead in the water last month after firing manager Scott Servais. With only six games left to play, there is a legitimate chance they could steal a wild-card spot.
On Tuesday, it all starts with Logan Gilbert, who has been in tremendous form recently. Gilbert pitched a gem in his last start against the Yankees and now faces a familiar opponent in the Astros.
With over 179 at-bats, the Astros are batting .268 against Gilbert, which is good but not great. In September, Gilbert had a 4.26 ERA but a sparkling 0.91 WHIP.
The low WHIP suggests he is due for favorable fortune moving forward, and it could be as early as tonight. Gilbert has a 3.13 xERA, which ranks above the 85th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers.
The Astros have a solid offensive team, but their batting average dips .09 points against right-handed pitchers. That works in Gilbert’s favor, who can shut down any opposing lineup, which was on full display against the Yankees.
I love the Mariners’ offensive matchup against Framber Valdez. They have had a lot of success against him over a large sample size of plate appearances, with a .306 AVG and .377 OBP.
The offense is extremely streaky, and they are still dead last in strikeouts per game, but I like the matchup on both sides of the diamond tonight. With Gilbert on the mound, the Mariners should have the advantage early.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Astros Betting Preview: Astros on the Verge of Clinching” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/houston-astros” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Given how poorly they started the 2024 campaign, the Astros have had a remarkable season. Back in May, I doubt anybody would have believed they’d find themselves on the verge of clinching the AL West yet again.
They’ll try to accomplish that feat tonight with their rotation anchor on the mound: Framber Valdez, who enters with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 170 2/3 innings.
Valdez’s 62% ground-ball rate is one of the main reasons he’s an elite starting pitcher. He also ranks above the 90th percentile in barrel rate, so most hitters do not get an excellent opportunity to square up a baseball against him.
The problem for Valdez is that the Mariners have had past success against him. Despite how elite he might be, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned.
The Astros offense faces a tall task against Gilbert — someone they’ve yet to crack. However, they should have the edge once Gilbert exits the game, but in the early portion, I need help envisioning them getting off to a hot start offensively. They might be a great live betting opportunity, as they’ll most likely be plus money if the Mariners hold an early lead.
Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the Mariners tonight, but I would not back them for the entire game. The best play for me is the Mariners first five innings moneyline at +105.
There is much to like about the M’s offense against Valdez, and they should be able to score a couple runs early. That should be enough for Gilbert.
Pick: Mariners F5 Moneyline (+105)
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Moneyline
As I alluded to earlier, I think it’s very possible that the Astros come from behind and win tonight. They’ll have the upperhand once Gilbert departs, and that’ll allow their offense to go to work.
With such a low total, it is possible that you can grab inflated odds on the Astros even if they are trailing by 1-2 runs in the early portion of the game.
Pick: Astros live moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
Pass
Over/Under
Pass
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mariners vs Astros Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
- The Astros moneyline is getting 73% of bets and 86% of the money
- The over is getting 75% of bets and 75% of the money
- The Astros run line (-1.5) is getting 79% of bets and 87% of the money
Mariners Betting Trends
- Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Mariners are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mariners are 34-45 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mariners’ last 5 games
Astros Betting Trends
- Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Astros’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Astros’ 79 last games at home
Mariners-Astros Key Injuries
Mariners Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Luis Castillo | Left hamstring strain (15-day IL) |
Astros Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DH Yordan Alvarez | Right knee (Day to day; hopes to play over weekend) |
| OF Chas McCormick | Right hand fracture (10-day IL) |
| RHP Tayler Scott | Spine (15-day IL) |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mariners vs Astros Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”233310″ date=”2024-09-25″][/gameforecast]
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