Check out our MLB best bets for Sunday’s 16-game slate.
With a ton of playoff implications on the line, our MLB staff has compiled a pair of MLB Best Bets. Among those picks include an over/under for the Reds vs Pirates, as well as a moneyline prediction for the Giants vs Royals.
MLB Best Bets, Picks & Sunday Predictions — 9/22
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The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | 1:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup] | 2:10 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Alex Kolodziej’s Pirates vs Reds Best Bet: Is the Total Inflated?”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 8 (-108 | Play to -110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” homename=”Cincinnati Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Sunday, September 22″ time=”1:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”ESPN BET” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gameheader]
Put some respect on these pitchers’ names. Also, Happy Paul Skenes Day.
Great American Ball Park is No. 1 in home runs, but typically, spots like these traditionally favor the pitchers.
Both Skenes and Greene can fan ’em, and Great American Ballpark’s sexy offensive stats are likely giving us an inflated total.
Bettors can build betting trends galore through PRO Systems. One in particular titled ‘High Strikeout Pitchers’ highlights Pirates-Reds under due to both Skenes and Greene’s ability to notch Ks
Overall, games like these tend to go under 57% of the time, given the total is 8 or higher.
Pick: Under 8 (-108 | Play to -110)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Sean Paul’s Giants vs Royals Best Bet: Fade the Royals”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Giants ML (-118 | Play to -130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” homename=”Kansas City Royals” homeslug=”kansas-city-royals” date=”Sunday, September 22″ time=”2:10 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Sean Paul
It’s the absolute worst time to be on a six-game losing streak, but that’s the reality for the Kansas City Royals. I’ll look for the losing streak to extend in the finale of their series against the San Francisco Giants.
We’ve seen some aces struggle to get run support in the past, whether it be Felix Hernandez or, more recently, Jacob deGrom. That is not the case for Giants ace Blake Snell, who has received an outpouring of support from the bats, scoring 23 runs in Snell’s past two starts.
Plus, the Giants won 11 of Snell’s past 13 starts. He’s been a money-making machine for those who back their moneyline on his start days.
Snell boasts an impressive 1.84 ERA in his past 15 starts with 59 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. He’s dominated virtually everyone he’s faced of late (besides the Diamondbacks outing since he left after just one inning a few starts back.)
I don’t foresee the Giants replicating their nine-run or ten-run output from the first two games of the series against the very consistent Seth Lugo.
Those performances look like an outlier since San Francisco has an 84 wRC+ with a 28% K rate this month.
This is strictly a fade of the Royals porous offense which ranks second to last in baseball with a 74 wRC+ in September. The White Sox have hit it better this month. That’s not something a playoff-caliber team ever wants to hear. Things get a bit more frightening when a pitcher like Snell awaits.
I’ll gladly take the Giants at -118, up to -130.
Pick: Giants ML (-118 | Play to -130)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup] |