Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 115-63-5 (64.2%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Last week, the unlucky teams in the four Luck Rankings matchups went 2-2 ATS, but if you followed the Week 2 Luck Trends section of last week’s writeup, you’ll notice there were significant home/road splits for unlucky teams. The splits held up again this year, as the unlucky road teams went 2-0 ATS, while the unlucky home teams went 0-2 ATS.
Technically this week, we also add in Luck Unders if a game has a Luck Total below -5. However, no games meet the threshold this week.
Instead, we’re fortunate to have seven(!!!) luck-based matchups to take a look at for Week 3.
Weeks 3 & 4 Luck Trends
Unlike Week 2, there are no home/road splits to consider for Weeks 3 and 4, as both home and away unluckty teams meeting our criteria seem to cover at about the same rate in Week 3.
For Week 3, these unlucky teams are 23-10-0 (69.7%) ATS, with almost identical home and road cover percentages. Similarly, in Week 4 unlucky teams are 11-5 (68.8%) ATS, meaning between Weeks 3 and 4, we have a 49-game sample size of unlucky teams going 34-15-0 (69.4%) ATS.
In other words, we can feel pretty good about the luck factor for these two weeks. So while the Luck Rankings shouldn’t be your only tool in the toolbox for handicapping games, with nearly a 70% hit rate in Weeks 3 and 4, you should at least give strong consideration the Luck Rankings in process these next two weeks.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 3 Games
Broncos (32) vs. Buccaneers (2)
Luck Difference: 30
Luck Gap: 116.6%
We have a rare 30-plus Luck Difference game!
Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Difference of 30 or more are 7-1-1 (83.3%) ATS, including 5-0-0 (100%) if they are also a road team. If we expand that difference to 28 or more to build a larger sample size, unlucky teams are 22-12-1 (64.3%) ATS, including 13-4-0 (76.5%) for road unlucky teams.
If we look at the Luck Gap of 116.6%, that falls in our elevated 90%-plus threshold where unlucky teams are 13-5-2 (70%) ATS, including 2-1 last week.
We also have other PRO Systems on the Broncos in this one including Early Season Winless Teams and Bet Against Public After Bad Game.
Denver had a better offensive success rate than the Steelers in Week 2, while the Buccaneers gave up just nine points on six non-TD red zone drives by the Detroit Lions. In part, that’s driving this massive Luck Gap between the two teams. It’s also encouraging to note that Bo Nix’s success rate on pass plays jumped more than 10% from Week 1 to Week 2.
Any continued improvement in this area would make the value clear on Denver, and that doesn’t even factor in the high likelihood of luck regression.
According to our PRO Report, the bigger money is on Denver but most of the bets and money are on Tampa Bay. It’s pretty unclear which way the line will move here. If you can find a +7, I’d say grab it.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +7
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Jaguars (29) vs. Bills (6)
Luck Difference: 23
Luck Gap: 81.5%
The Jaguars are coming off two one-score losses, including last week against Cleveland when the 21.8-18.6 Expected Score we get from the underlying play-by-play metrics said they should have won.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s blowout of Miami was closer than it looked. The two teams had similar success rates, but Miami couldn’t finish drives with points after moving the ball well. When you move the ball that well, you’ll tend to finish more of those drives. That means Buffalo was lucky.
Like the Broncos-Bucs game, this one has had some conflicting signals regarding which direction the line will move. Six points is no longer available and DraftKings is even down to +5. I’ll take the 5.5 now since I make this spread closer to four points, which is where the line was when it opened on the lookahead market.
Verdict: Bet Jacksonville +5.5
Dolphins (21) vs. Seahawks (4)
Luck Difference: 17
Luck Gap: 59.8%
Miami heads to Seattle with Skylar Thompson set to start in place of Tua Tagovailoa. Traditionally, betting on backup QBs has been a profitable spot, but that has been noticed and the Dolphins were steamed down to 4.5-point underdogs after the line was 6.5 on Monday.
At this point, I’ll wait to see if there’s any resistance and try to grab a better number than the 4.5.
Verdict: Wait for a better number
Packers (14) vs. Titans (31)
Luck Difference: 17
Luck Gap: 56.9%
I love the Titans here. Tennessee was the better team according to Expected Score in Week 2 against the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. They also played the Bears closer than the final 24-17 scoreline suggested.
I don’t need to overthink this, so I’ll trust the Luck Rankings and take Tennessee.
Verdict: Bet Tennessee -2.5
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Bears (15) vs. Colts (30)
Luck Difference: 15
Luck Gap: 56.6%
The Colts lost to Malik Willis and the Packers, which doesn’t inspire much confidence. That said, the game was a coin flip, as was their loss to the Texans in Week 1, according to Expected Scores.
With the line moving toward Caleb Williams and the Bears, I’m not in a hurry to jump on a Colts team that has looked shaky. I could see this potentially getting to a pick’em with bigger and sharper action backing the Bears, as of Tuesday.
Verdict: Wait
Chiefs (1) vs. Falcons (17)
Luck Difference: 16
Luck Gap: 55.5%
Atlanta’s improbable comeback is on everyone’s mind, which may have people itching to back Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Let’s not forget how lucky Kansas City has been, though, winning coin-flips games in which Expected Score says it was the inferior side.
So, while Atlanta was lucky against Philadelphia, we need to remember the Falcons were unlucky against Pittsburgh, making their 1-1 record pretty neutral.
Given Joe Burrow‘s injury and the Bengals‘ defensive struggles, I’m not sure the Chiefs have faced all that much tougher of a schedule than Atlanta has. That might ring even truer when we consider the Ravens just lost to the Raiders in a game that saw Las Vegas have the higher Expected Score.
We haven’t even factored in starting RB Isiah Pacheco‘s injury, which could have played a role in this line moving a touch in Atlanta’s favor.
In the end, I do like Atlanta at 3.5, but part of me wants to be greedy and wait for a +4 to pop up out there. However, with a couple of books shading that +3.5 toward Atlanta, I don’t think I can risk being greedy and having the line move to +3.
Verdict: Bet Atlanta +3.5
Commanders (13) vs. Bengals (28)
Luck Difference: 15
Luck Gap: 54.2%
A week after covering against Kansas City as the unlucky team, the Bengals are once again the unlucky team given they should have won that game by Expected Score but lost on a last-second field goal.
However, this 7.5 points is a hefty line for a QB who has struggled to throw the ball downfield this season. I also don’t love the Bengals run defense, which could be problematic against a Washington team with a running QB in Jayden Daniels.
Unless there’s significant movement toward Washington, I can’t see myself taking a stand on the Bengals here.
Verdict: Pass
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