An interleague affair is on tap on Tuesday night at Camden Yards, where the San Francisco Giants (72-78) and Baltimore Orioles (84-66) open a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN 2 and NBC Sports Bay Area, and can also be streamed on MLB.TV. But before you tune in, check out my Giants vs Orioles prediction.
The Orioles’ hopes of winning the AL East are slipping by the day — they’re 3-7 over their past 10 games and trail the New York Yankees by three games. On Tuesday, they’ll have to face Giants ace Blake Snell, who has looked like the Cy Young winner of old. While he’s still walking plenty of batters, he boasts an incredible strikeout rate and is keeping hard contact to a minimum.
His opponent will be Albert Suárez, who has enjoyed a resurgent season for the Orioles. He has not impressed in any one particular area, but has logged over 119 innings for the O’s and has limited hard contact.
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- Giants-Orioles picks: Under 7.5 | Play to 7
My Giants vs Orioles best bet is on the under, where I see value at 7.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as at other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles Odds
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- Giants-Orioles Moneyline: Giants -120 | Orioles +100
- Giants-Orioles Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (+100o / -120u)
- Giants-Orioles Spread: Giants -1.5 (+145) | Orioles +1.5 (-175)
Giants-Orioles Probable Starting Pitchers
| LHP Blake Snell (SF) | Stat | RHP Albert Suarez (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 8-5 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.52/2.76 | ERA /xERA | 3.39/4.10 |
| 2.69/3.23 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83/4.54 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 22.1% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 35.3% |
| 122 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 97 | Location+ | 99 |
Giants at Orioles Preview, Predictions
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Giants Betting Preview: Snell Should Dominate” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/san-francisco-giants” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Snell has a 3.52 ERA and a 2.76 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 99th percentile. Granted, he has only pitched in 18 games this year, but he has sharp peripherals. As usual, he is walking over 10% of the batters he faces, but his strikeout rate is an astounding 33%. He manufactures whiffs and chases at a high rate and even boasts an above average ground-ball rate.
The Giants can’t hit righties, even if Suárez won’t blow them away. The Giants have an 85 wRC+, a 6.9% walk rate and a 28.9% strikeout rate off of righties over the past month. That strikeout rate is putrid, but Suárez won’t notch too many strikeouts.
The Giants’ bullpen has a 3.92 xFIP with a 23.9% strikeout rate and a 10.3% walk rate over the past month. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if Snell accrues pitches quickly, they have backup. Honestly, only walks will hurt San Francisco’s pitching staff in this matchup because Baltimore isn’t tearing the cover off of the ball at the moment.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Orioles Betting Preview: Suárez Will Limit Giants” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/baltimore-orioles” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Suárez has a 3.39 ERA and a 4.10 xERA this year. He has an 88.7 mph Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 61st percentile. He can limit barrels, even if he only has an 18.8% strikeout rate. He had his toughest outing in some time against the Chicago White Sox, but other than that, he’s been solid since the beginning of August.
The Orioles have an 81 wRC+, an 8% walk rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties in the past month. Sure, the walk rate is somewhat encouraging against Snell and the Giants’ bullpen, but the O’s only have four active bats (with more than 10 plate appearance) with an xwOBA over .320 against lefties in the past month. The majority of this lineup will likely struggle against Snell, which could allow him to pitch deeper than usual.
The Baltimore bullpen has a 3.34 xFIP, a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in the past month. The Orioles have four active arms with an xFIP under 4.00, which should be more than enough behind Suárez.
Giants vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both starters should have decent performances. Neither of these teams is hitting well and Baltimore isn’t necessarily a hitter’s park (15th in Statcast’s park factor). Look for the under to hit in this game as offense should be at a premium. Play the under from 7.5 down to 7.
Pick: Under 7.5 | Play to 7
Moneyline
I’m going to pass on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m not going to bet the Giants vs. Orioles run line.
Over/Under
I’m betting the Giants vs. Orioles over/under and would play it down to 7.
Giants-Orioles Key Injuries
Giants Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS Tyler Fitzgerald | Lower back tightness (day to day) |
| LHP Robbie Ray | Left hamstring strain (15-day IL) |
| LHP Kyle Harrison | Left shoulder inflammation (15-day IL; likely out for season) |
Orioles Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| INF Jordan Westburg | Right hand fracture (10-day IL) |
| INF Ryan Mountcastle | Left wrist sprain (10-day IL) |
| RHP Grayson Rodriguez | Right lat strain (15-day IL) |
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Giants-Orioles Betting Trends” center=”false”][/subheader]
Giants Betting Trends
- Giants are 33-39 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Giants’ last 5 games
- Giants are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles Betting Trends
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Orioles’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Orioles’ 75 last games at home
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”232475″ date=”2024-09-17″][/gameforecast]
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