Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 113-61-5 (64.5%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Starting after Weeks 3 and 4, we’ll also add in luck totals. For now, there are four luck-based matchups to take a look at for Week 2.
Week 2 Luck Trends
While we do have the three criteria for a luck-based matchup, we do want to analyze weekly trends because we only have one game of data for each team. That also means the luck% differences — what we call the Luck Gap — are typically at or near their largest values of the season.
Unlucky teams meeting just the second criteria (at least 50% Luck Gap) are 23-17-2 (57.1%) ATS in Week 2. However, if the unlucky team is also on the road, they are 14-7-1 (65.9%) ATS, while unlucky teams at home that meet just the second criteria are only 9-10-1 (47.5%) ATS.
The magnitude of the Luck Gap also matters. If the Luck Gap is at least 90%, unlucky teams are 10-3-2 (73.3%) ATS in Week 2, and the home/road splits go away (4-1-2 for road teams, 6-2-0 for home teams).
In other words, for large Luck Gaps, we can feel better about backing the unlucky team regardless of where they play. But for smaller Luck Gaps (sub 90%) ideally we’d target unlucky road teams.
However, the Luck Rankings are just one tool for your bag. That said, we grade all games that meet at least one of the three criteria at the top against closing lines as a Luck Ranking play for record-keeping purposes.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 2 Games
Pittsburgh Steelers (5) at Denver Broncos (32)
Luck Difference: 27
Luck Gap: 104.0%
The largest Luck Gap of the four luck-based games this week tells us we should back the Bo Nix-led Broncos against the Steelers.
I don’t feel enthusiastic about this spot even though it meets the large Luck Gap criteria simply because Denver looked awful on offense. So, while they were favored to beat Seattle by our Expected Score metric, if Denver had a normal average field position against Seattle, the result likely would have been very different.
But that is a credit to Denver’s defense and special teams for generating that field position, so maybe I’m being a bit harsh.
And that’s exactly why we have the Luck Rankings. It helps take personal emotion out of it.
So now the question is, how do we feel about the three-point line?
It’s still quite early in the week, but according to our sharp report on Tuesday morning, Pittsburgh is taking the big money while the Broncos have the public backing. I don’t have a good feel for how this line may (or may not) move, so I think it’s fine to take it now or wait.
Since we grade against closing lines, and the bigger money is on the Steelers, I’ll wait this one out and hope we can catch a 3.5 somewhere during the week.
Verdict: Wait for Denver +3.5
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Cincinnati Bengals (24) at Kansas City Chiefs (2)
Luck Difference: 22
Luck Gap: 96.8%
If you’ve been following my work this offseason and in Week 1, you know I’m all out on the Bengals.
I think their defense sucks, and Joe Burrow‘s wrist injury is a massive concern to me. Both of those played out in week 1, as the Bengals allowed 16 points to New England, which was a bit lucky given the Expected Score for New England was 22.5 points.
The Bengals ranked 17th in defensive DVOA for week 1, but that isn’t schedule adjusted since that doesn’t kick in until later. Think about it — their defense ranked 17th despite being lucky and facing arguably the worst offense in the NFL. This is a bad defense.
Now, Cincinnati faces the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs who just dropped 27 points — and 27.6 by Expected Score — on a strong Ravens defense.
I could see the Chiefs scoring 30-plus easily.
So, I’m all out on taking a side here, and may even go against the Luck Rankings myself. I don’t want to back an injured QB despite the 90%-plus Luck Gap.
Verdict: Pass
Atlanta Falcons (28) at Philadelphia Eagles (7)
Luck Difference: 21
Luck Gap: 93.2%
In a situation similar to the Bengals-Chiefs, we have an unlucky road team with a Luck Gap above 90%. This should be a slam-dunk backing of Atlanta, right? (Insert Anakin-Padme meme here.)
Not so fast, my friend.
Like Burrow, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is also coming off an injury. In his case, it’s his planting foot’s Achilles that’s in question after tearing it last year.
Cousins looked to have trouble driving his throws by not planting with his injured heel to generate power. That’s a massive concern and something I don’t take lightly when assessing the most important position in football.
The Eagles, meanwhile, weren’t even all that lucky. They beat the Green Bay Packers by five points in a game our Expected Score had as a 1.7-point Philly victory.
So once again, I’m going to buck the trends and just pass on this game. I need at least a second game to assess two potentially still-injured QBs.
Verdict: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers (4) at Carolina Panthers (19)
Luck Difference: 15
Luck Gap: 61.7%
I know, I know. The Luck Rankings say we should bet on the Panthers. I’ve heard it all from you guys on this one, I promise!
The good news is that I’m not backing the Panthers against the Chargers.
That’s because this Week 2 game falls in the sub 90% Luck Gap bucket, meaning we should consider whether the unlucky team is at home or on the road. Here, the Panthers are the home team, meaning we can safely pass on backing this disaster of a team, for the time being.
Verdict: Pass
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