Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for the first time after Week 1 of the 2024 season.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria are 113-61-5 (64.5%) ATS in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 2.
NFL Week 2 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
56.44%
|
|
| 2 |
55.16%
|
|
| 3 |
53.96%
|
|
| 4 |
47.18%
|
|
| 5 |
46.54%
|
|
| 6 |
45.75%
|
|
| 7 |
45.65%
|
|
| 8 |
41.45%
|
|
| 9 |
40.63%
|
|
| 10 |
38%
|
|
| 11 |
32.75%
|
|
| 12 |
29.77%
|
|
| 13 |
15.21%
|
|
| 14 |
13.5%
|
|
| 15 |
12.14%
|
|
| 16 |
10.38%
|
|
| 17 |
-11.36%
|
|
| 18 |
-13.12%
|
|
| 19 |
-14.48%
|
|
| 20 |
-16.19%
|
|
| 21 |
-30.74%
|
|
| 22 |
-33.73%
|
|
| 23 |
-38.98%
|
|
| 24 |
-41.61%
|
|
| 25 |
-42.43%
|
|
| 26 |
-46.62%
|
|
| 27 |
-46.73%
|
|
| 28 |
-47.51%
|
|
| 29 |
-48.15%
|
|
| 30 |
-54.94%
|
|
| 31 |
-56.14%
|
|
| 32 |
-57.41%
|
Luck Rankings Week 2 Commentary
Week 2 is always interesting because teams have only played one game. Since we use the difference between a team’s win percentage and its expected win probability from our Expected Score, the luckiest team’s Week 1 opponent will be the unluckiest team because all teams are either 1-0 or 0-1 without any ties.
This year, there were only three luck-based upsets, and all three were essentially coin flips by our Expected Score. The “biggest upset” had the unlucky team still winning the game an expected 43.6% of the time.
Compare that to last year when there were five luck-based upsets, including the Eagles beating the Patriots despite only having a 21.6% chance to win based on how that game played out. That would be reflected later in the year, as the Eagles closed the season just 1-6.
So, while it may be easy to be in disbelief about the top or bottom of our Luck Rankings in Week 1, know that the top three are essentially just three coin-flip winners. However, that still matters, as public perception — and bookmaking — can give credence to records and actual scores without understanding the underlying luck involved.
The Luckiest & Unluckiest Teams
1. Seattle Seahawks, 32. Denver Broncos
Surprisingly, the Seahawks top the list as No. 1 in our 2024 Week 2 NFL Luck Rankings.
Seattle thoroughly outplayed Denver on offense, boasting a 43.1% to 27.5% advantage in Success Rate on run and pass plays. However, it was all the intangibles that hurt Seattle. Denver outpaced Seattle by 13% in Success Rate on all other plays, including penalties and special teams plays.
The other major factor was field position. Denver’s average starting field position was at the Seattle 39.7-yard line, compared to Seattle starting at its own 36.1-yard line. That’s a full 24.8 yards farther away than the Broncos. I think we can all agree even a bad NFL team getting nearly a 25-yard head start should probably beat a mid-tier opponent.
Even teams with such a low Success Rate like Denver are still expected to do more with the ball than the Broncos did. That’s why Denver’s Expected Score is 23.3 points compared to the 20 it actually scored. Seattle outperformed expectations, scoring 26 points compared to 22.2 expected.
That 23.3-22.2 Expected Score victory for the Broncos is why Seattle is this week’s luckiest team with the Broncos sitting at the bottom as the unluckiest.
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 31. Baltimore Ravens
This game was decided by a toenail. If Isaiah Likely‘s toe doesn’t touch out of bounds, the Ravens may win 28-27 if the touchdown stood and their ensuing 2-point conversion would have been successful.
Instead, we’re living in a timeline in which Kansas City won 27-20 and the Ravens are 0-1, a harsh record for a game that was a coin flip.
Baltimore won the Expected Score battle 28.8-27.6, making its seven-point loss the second-most-unlucky result of Week 1.
3. Houston Texans, 30. Indianapolis Colts
In maybe another surprising one, the Colts were favored to win by our Expected Score metric by a score of 30.0-26.9.
A red-zone interception in the first half was expected on average to turn into points for the Colts but didn’t, and a fourth-and-1 at the Houston 46 on the opening drive failed to convert. There’s an alternate timeline in which the Colts convert that fourth down and don’t turn the ball over. Indy also failed its only 2-point conversion attempt, which is rough considering the final 2-point margin at 29-27.
Every other Colts drive either ended in a punt with low expectations or a touchdown. Yes, the long touchdowns were lucky, so that somewhat balances out the bad luck they had in the other aforementioned spots. That’s why Indianapolis ended just three points short of expectations.
Meanwhile, the Texans scored almost exactly in line with expectations. They had a 46% chance to win and did, making them the third of the three Expected Score upsets in Week 1.