The Air Force Falcons will go on the road to take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday night. This game is set to kick off at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, at 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Baylor is currently a 15.5-point home favorite in a game with an over/under of 41.5 points. The Bears haven’t looked strong this season, but the hope is they can get back on track in this matchup.
Let’s take a look at my preview and best bets for the Baylor Bears vs Air Force Falcons on Saturday night.
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I don’t like either of the offenses in this matchup and think this will be an ugly game.
My Prediction: Under 41.5
Air Force vs Baylor Odds, Spread, Line
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- Air Force vs. Baylor Spread: Air Force +15.5 (-108), Baylor -15.5 (-112)
- Air Force vs. Baylor Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-108, -112)
- Air Force vs. Baylor Moneyline: Air Force +575, Baylor -850
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Last year, Air Force was strong on both sides of the ball. They ranked 45th overall in SP+ and were 30th in offensive Success Rate and 45th in Success Rate allowed. However, this isn’t the same team returning this year, as the Falcons return only two starters on offense and four on defense.
The Air Force offense has been brutal through two games this season. Despite playing San Jose State and Merrimack, they rank 130th in offensive Success Rate and 131st in EPA per Play. After ranking 36th in yards per rush last season, the Falcons now rank 131st through two games.
The defense for this team is still a question mark. It was strong last season, but with just four starters back, there was a lot of unknown. Merrimack did nothing offensively, but they are one of the bottom-tier offenses at the FCS level, so this is to be expected. San Jose State also has a new coach and offense, so it’s hard to learn much from that game.
This could be a solid defense, but that remains to be seen.
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Baylor’s offense ranked just 78th in SP+ last year, a far cry from where they have been most of the last few decades.
The Bears returned 10 starters on offense and brought in quarterback Dequan Finn from Toledo. They also brought in a new offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital, who is implementing a new scheme on this side of the ball.
This has gone so far. Through two games, the Bears rank 126th in offensive Success Rate and 103rd in EPA per Play. They defeated FCS Tarleton State, 45-3, but had a 32nd-percentile offensive Success Rate and 50th-percentile EPA per Play. This may be higher if garbage time is excluded, but these aren’t fantastic numbers.
Utah has a stout defense and was able to hold Baylor in check last weekend. The Bears had just a 10th-percentile success rate and ninth-percentile EPA per play while averaging a dismal 3.66 yards per play.
Through two games, Finn has not performed well at all. He has completed 22 of his 42 pass attempts for only 299 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s averaging -0.37 EPA per dropback this season and a 30% passing success rate. I’d credit this to Utah’s defense, but he threw both interceptions against Tarleton State and posted -0.15 EPA per Play.
Baylor’s defense has shown signs of improvement, however. After ranking 103rd in SP+ defensively last season, the Bears are seventh in defensive Success Rate and 32nd in EPA per Play allowed.
However, remember that they have only played an FCS opponent and a Utah team that played a true freshman quarterback for over half the game after its starter was injured.
This defense did make Cam Rising struggle a little bit in his limited action, but I still need to see more to believe in its dramatic improvement going forward, as this was one of the worst power five defenses last season.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”How to Bet My Air Force vs Baylor Prediction” center=”true” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
This total has already fallen a couple of points this week, but I still think it may be too high at 41.5. Baylor’s offense has not shown any signs of life to this point in the season, and Air Force has a track record of reliable defenses, so I think Air Force could at least suppress Baylor’s offensive output.
On the other hand, Baylor’s defense appears to have improved at least a bit, and they should have a size advantage on Air Force. The Falcons’ offense has been atrocious, and they can’t run the ball, which is their calling card.
I don’t like either of the offenses in this matchup and think this will be another ugly game.
Pick: Under 41.5 Points (Play to 39.5)
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”How to Watch Air Force vs Baylor” center=”true”][/subheader]
| Location: | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Trends
- Both of Air Force’s games this season have gone UNDER.
- Same goes for Baylor, which has likewise gone UNDER in both games this season.
NCAAF Week 3 Weather: Air Force-Baylor
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226611″ date=”2024-09-14″][/gameforecast]