Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aori Qileng Odds
| Rosas Odds | +600 |
| Qileng Odds | -1000 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-105 / -125) |
| Location | Sphere in Las Vegas |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| UFC 306 odds as of Saturday evening and via Betway. Bet on UFC 306 with our Betway promo code. | |
Here’s everything you need to know about Raul Rosas Jr vs. Aori Qileng odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.
Tonight’s one and only UFC 306 early prelim features a bout between unranked bantamweights with Rosas vs. Aori Qileng (Aoriqileng). The curtain-jerker streams on ESPN+ and kicks of a long-awaited Noche UFC event at the state-of-the-art Sphere in Las Vegas.
The steam is heavily on Rosas in this matchup; he opened at -450 on the moneyline and is now listed at -1000 at Betway at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the massive favorite with a prop bet in my Rosas vs. Aoriqileng preview for UFC 306.
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Tony Sartori’s Tale of the Tape
| Rosas | Qileng | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 25-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:12 | 10:20 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’7″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 136 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/8/2004 | 6/25/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 1.12 | 5.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.4 | 6.0 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.39 | 1.45 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 46% |
| TD Def | 0% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 0.0 |
As suggested by the odds, this fight is about as sizable of a mismatch as you will see on a UFC pay-per-view card.
The UFC is trying to build up Rosas as a rising star, which is why matchmakers are booking him against an experienced but low-level fighter.
With all due respect to Qileng, he is simply a far inferior fighter than Rosas and is just being utilized to improve the latter. Before a low blow, Qileng was getting dominated by Daniel Marcos en route to what would have been his second loss over the past three fights.
Meanwhile, Rosas carries a 9-1 professional MMA record with his lone loss coming to the 11-2 Christian Rodriguez.
At just 19, Rosas has demonstrated an intense wrestling pace that is followed by a lethal submission game.
The question to ask with this fight is not “Do we back Rosas?” but rather “How do we back Rosas?”
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Rosas vs. Aoriqileng Pick
Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to end inside the distance, given that it is priced as wide as -475 to do so.
Subsequently, Rosas’ method-of-victory odds at Betway are as follows:
- KO/TKO (+450)
- Submission (-150)
- Decision (+400)
It makes sense that Rosas by submission is the most likely outcome, given those aforementioned grappling skills. Six of his nine professional wins have come by submission.
Meanwhile, 27% of Qileng’s losses have come by submission. I don’t trust his mere 58% takedown defense, and once Rosas brings this fight to the mat, it’s likely over for him.
The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. by submission (-150 at BetWay) | Play to -160
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