UFC 306 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes on Saturday, September 14

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes Odds

Here’s everything you need to know about Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds for UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14 – my expert UFC pick and prediction.

The fight that was originally put together as the UFC 303 emergency co-main event has now been rebooked for UFC 306 this weekend.

Conor McGregor’s withdrawal from the International Fight Week event left the UFC scrambling, with Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes stepping up on short notice to boost the card. Ortega’s attempted massive weight cut left him unable to compete, and Lopes met Dan Ige (who accepted the fight that day) instead.

This time, both fighters will have full training camps to prepare for what should be a banger of a featherweight fight on the Noche UFC pay-per-view main card tonight.

_InlineAdBlock

Billy Ward’s Tale of the Tape

If you don’t count the injury loss he suffered against Yair Rodrigues, Brian Ortega has lost to only all-time great featherweights Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. The problem, though, is we probably shouldn’t be discounting injuries for Ortega at this point.

Besides the torn shoulder in that bout, Ortega has suffered a torn ACL, and he even sprained/turned his ankle during the prefight introductions of the Rodriguez rematch.

Ortega was able to come back and win that fight with a third round submission, but got beat up on the feet in Round 1. He was eventually able to make it a grappling match, where he had a huge edge over the former interim champ.

Ortega’s wins have typically come with a heavy dose of grappling, and his losses have come when he’s unable to find takedowns or finish the fight on the ground.

That makes this a tough stylistic matchup against Lopes, who’s an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitor and the grappling coach for fellow UFC 306 competitors Irene Aldana and Alexa Grasso.

Ortega is almost certainly the better wrestler here, but he could find himself in trouble against Lopes if the fight finds its way to the canvas. At the very least, Lopes won’t allow the takedown threat to dissuade him from his usual aggressive striking.

Both men have plenty of power on the feet, and they prefer to fight moving forward. That comes at a cost in terms of defense, though, as both have negative striking differentials – though to be fair to Ortega, fights against Volkanovski and Holloway skew those numbers heavily.

Even so, Ortega has been out struck by fighters such as Renato Moicano and Diego Brandao, neither of whom is the threat that Lopes is.

Lopes proved that back at UFC 300, where he got after Sodiq Yussuf early and often, scoring two knockdowns and a finish in less than 90 seconds. Lopes isn’t the most technical striker, but he makes up for it with speed, great length for the division, and an ability to generate power even in close quarters.

Ortega’s typical strategy of pushing forward should create plenty of opportunities for inside boxing, where I’d expect Lopes to have the edge.

[relatedarticles article1imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/09/UFC-Sphere-Noche-Las-Vegas.jpg” link1text=”UFC 306 Odds: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Guide for All 10 Fights” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/ufc-306-odds-noche-betting-preview-saturday-september-14″ date1=”2024-09-14T00:08:30.000Z” article2imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/09/Merab-Dvalishvili-octagon-entrance.jpg” link2text=”UFC Noche Best Bets: 4 Expert Picks & Projections” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/ufc-306-best-bets-expert-picks-projections-saturday-september-14″ date2=”2024-09-14T01:55:04.000Z” article3imageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/09/Merab-Dvalishvili-takedown.jpg” link3text=”UFC 306 Props: 10 Ways to Squeeze Juice from Sphere” link3=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/ufc-306-props-picks-predictions-mma-prop-squad-saturday-september-14″ date3=”2024-09-14T13:21:20.000Z”][/relatedarticles]

Ortega vs. Lopes Pick

This fight is a great test for Lopes, who has the tools to be a potential title contender at 145 pounds. Getting through somebody like Ortega, who’s lost only to top-level competition, would expedite that process – and it couldn’t come at a better time for Lopes.

While Ortega is only about four years older and has 12 fewer professional fights, he’s seemingly falling apart at the seams. He had originally planned to make the jump to 155 pounds (which led to the weight cutting difficulties the first time around), and another tough cut to 145 likely won’t help those issues.

Given the relatively neutral grappling in this fight and both men’s occasionally inadequate striking defense, durability will likely be a big factor.

If it is, that’s a huge edge to Lopes. He might not be bale to find the finish against Ortega, but he should have enough big moments to secure the win even if it makes it to the judges.

Give me Lopes on the moneyline with a best price of -175 at bet365. The line has been moving towards Lopes all week, but I’d continue to play it down to -200.

The Pick: Diego Lopes (-175 at bet365)

_InlineAdBlockRestart

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/807135_UFCArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for UFC bettors” firstupsell=”The best UFC betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/5894db61″][/appcard]