If PRO Projections MLB home run picks helped you out last week, raise your hand. Narrator: Many hands were raised.
Our expert home run models put together a nice a little hot streak, correctly predicting a top pick to homer three days in a row. Transitioning to Monday’s nine-game MLB slate, we’re back gathering insights from our data.
Today, one game sticks out for homers: Mets vs. Blue Jays. The interleague matchup features multiple hitters whose odds are so off the market, projections green-lighted two picks to lock in.
After comparing our home run edges and data to what’s available to bet for Monday, let’s switch over to the analysis and top selections.
MLB Home Run Picks, Projections, Top Edges Monday (September 9)
Rogers Centre in Toronto is an above-average stadium for home runs.
Scanning park factors, it’s the 11th best stadium for generating homers. Tonight’s starting pitchers are Tylor Megill and Ryan Burr.
For our picks, projections anticipate a couple hitters well-suited to launch one out tonight.
Home Run Pick No. 1 for Mets vs. Blue Jays: Bet Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Surprise, suprise. Vlad Guerrero Jr. — who has been high atop projections since the second half of the season — is the No. 1 home run pick for Monday night.
Guerrero’s odds to homer today are +575 at BetMGM. Those are great odds to exploit; we predict Guerrero for 0.27 homers tonight at home vs. Megill.
The 9.4% edge on Guerrero to park one in his home stadium produces a beefy 8.8% edge.
PRO Projections Edge: Vlad Guerrero Jr. HR (+575)
Home Run Prediction No. 2 for Mets vs. Blue Jays: Bet Jose Iglesias
From one team’s premier slugger to a longshot, Jose Iglesias of the Mets is projections second-best pick.
His best odds to go yard are +1400 at FanDuel. We project Iglesias to launch about 0.15 homers on average, which translates to a cool 7.3% edge.
PRO Projections Edge: Jose Iglesias HR (+1400)
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