As we approach a new MLB weekend, fresh opportunities arise for bettors looking to capitalize on home run projections.
Using proprietary data from our team of experts, PRO Projections highlights three hitters with great odds to go long Friday. Our system, which analyzes a blend of odds, player projections and various other betting markets, has flagged a couple of undervalued left-handed hitters and another who enjoys the comforts of his home ballpark as prime candidates for a home run tonight.
Today’s top games to target home run picks are Nationals vs. Braves and Angels vs. Blue Jays.
After evaluating the significant elements, let’s pinpoint our top recommendations for today’s MLB bets.
MLB Home Run Projections Top Picks Friday, August 23
Home Run Pick No. 1 for Nationals-Braves: Bet Michael Harris II
First up on our list is Michael Harris II of the Braves.
Harris stands as the top home run pick from PRO Projections today. His best odds to go deep can be found at +800 through BetMGM, but our projections are even more optimistic.
According to PRO Projections, Harris is slated for approximately 0.22 home runs, which translates to a 7% edge.
PRO Projections Edge: Michael Harris II HR (+800)
Home Run Pick No. 2 for Nationals-Braves: Bet Luis Garcia
Let’s next turn our attention to Luis Garcia of the Nationals, who is also part of the Braves-Nationals clash.
This game appears to be fertile ground for home run projections, and Garcia is another standout. With odds of +1250, PRO Projections estimate that Garcia has a 0.17 likelihood of sending one out of the park, giving him a 6.5% edge. With a 121 wRC+ and a strong season to back him, Garcia is an intriguing pick today at +1250.
PRO Props Edge: Luis Garcia HR (+1250)
Home Run Pick for Angels-Blue Jays: Bet Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Last, but certainly not least, we spotlight Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays.
Guerrero has been sizzling in the second half of the season and will enjoy the comfort of playing at home today. His best odds for a home run are at +475 on BetMGM, but PRO Projections puts his probability at 0.31, offering a 6.3% edge. Given his recent form and the supportive home environment, Guerrero is a solid bet to make an impact.
PRO Props Edge: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR (+475)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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