The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will face off at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday night in the first of a three-game series between these two postseason contenders.
Houston (70-60) has a 4.5-game lead in the race for the AL West. The Phillies (76-54), meanwhile, have a six-game lead in the NL East and the second-best record in the National League.
With their ace on the mound tonight, the Phillies are -178 favorites in a game with a total of eight runs (-105/-115).
Read below for my preview and best bets for Monday’s Astros vs. Phillies matchup, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Astros vs. Phillies Prediction
- Astros vs. Phillies pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-125, bet to -135)
My Astros-Phillies pick is on Philadelphia’s first five-innings run line (-0.5), where I see value at a line of -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs. Phillies Odds
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- Astros vs. Phillies run line: -1.5 (Astros -150, Phillies -126)
- Astros vs. Phillies total: Over/under 8 runs scored
- Astros vs. Phillies moneylines: Astros +150 | Phillies -178
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Astros vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| TBD | Stat | TBD |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 2.73 / 2.99 | ERA /xERA | 3.14 / 4.00 |
| 3.39 / 3.46 | FIP / xFIP | 4.32 / 4.15 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 41.7% | GB% | 38.4% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Cody Goggin’s Astros vs Phillies Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Fade Ronel Blanco
Ronel Blanco will be the starter for Houston tonight. Blanco is in his first full season in the Major League rotation and has posted an impressive 3.14 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and 4.18 SIERA.
Blanco has an 80th percentile whiff rate but this has translated to only a 63rd percentile strikeout rate. He has struggled with walks, allowing a free pass on 9.9% of plate appearances, which is in the 25th percentile.
Blanco ranks in the 78th percentile in hard hit rate, 55th in average exit velocity, and 20th percentile in barrel rate. He is in the 30th percentile in ground ball rate as he isn’t a grounder-heavy type of pitcher.
On offense the Astros rank eighth in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA this season. They are 10th in SLG, 14th in ISO, and 10th in OBP. They strikeout at the 3rd-lowest rate in the Majors and also walk at the 4th-lowest rate.
The Astros rank 13th in hard-hit rate, 14th in barrel rate and 12th in average exit velocity. They are 11th in ground-ball rate, as they hit grounders 42.2% of the time.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Zack Wheeler Gives Phillies Edge
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies tonight. The Phillies’ ace enters this matchup with the second-best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award at +300. Wheeler has a 2.73 ERA and a 2.99 xERA over 154.2 IP this season.
Wheeler has an 83rd percentile strikeout rate and 65th percentile walk rate this season. He has also avoided allowing hard contact, ranking in the 87th percentile in hard hit rate and 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. This has helped him to rank in the 89th percentile in xERA and 91st percentile in xBA.
The Phillies are 10th in wRC+, 7th in wOBA, 7th in SLG, and 11th in ISO this season. They walk a bit more than league average and strike out a bit less than league average.
Philadelphia is 10th in hard-hit rate, 21st in barrel rate, and 16th in average exit velocity. This low barrel rate is a result of the Phillies ranking 23rd in launch angle and thus being eighth in ground ball rate.
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Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: Back Home Team Early
Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the league in general. While Houston’s offense is a borderline top-10 unit, I don’t see any specific reasons to suggest that the Astros would have a better than average day against Wheeler.
Blanco’s ERA has outperformed his expected metrics, but he has still been a reliable pitcher. However, I am slightly concerned about him in this matchup. Specifically, the Phillies don’t strike out often and walk at an above average rate, which has been a downfall for Blanco at times this season.
I think that Philadelphia has the better starting pitcher in this matchup, and its offense has performed just as well as Houston’s this season. My favorite bet in this game is taking the Phillies -0.5 runs over the first five innings as I want to be backing Wheeler at just -125.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies F5 -0.5 (-125, bet to -135)
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Moneyline History
| Astros | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 70-60 | 76-54 |
| Home | 35-29 | 42-23 |
| Away | 35-31 | 34-31 |
| Favorite | 51-42 | 64-39 |
| Underdog | 17-17 | 11-15 |
I think the Phillies are the likely victors in this game, but I find the current moneyline too steep. As ace pitchers often are, I find this line to be inflated in favor of the home team. I think there could be some value on the Astros at +140 but I don’t have a specific lean either way on the full game moneyline.
Run Line (Spread) History
| Astros | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-66 | 63-67 |
| Home | 31-33 | 333-32 |
| Away | 33-33 | 30-35 |
| Favorite | 43-50 | 52-51 |
| Underdog | 19-15 | 10-16 |
I also don’t have a lean on the spread. The Phillies are +130 to win by more than one run, which is certainly on the table. With Wheeler having the ability to throw a shutout, this side may have some more value but I don’t have a recommendation on the run line overall.
Total (Over/Under) History
| Astros | Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 52-75-3 | 61-64-5 |
| Home | 26-36-2 | 29-33-3 |
| Away | 26-39-1 | 32-31-2 |
| Favorite | 33-57-3 | 42-57-4 |
| Underdog | 17-17 | 19-6-1 |
I believe this game lends itself towards a potential under. While Philadelphia’s offense has been good this year, this is far from a sure thing. There always is the possibility that Blanco has a solid start as well and keeps the Phillies in check. In that case, we could see this under come into play with two strong outings from the starting pitchers and neither team being one that hits the ball extremely hard.
Astros vs. Phillies Betting Trends
- 93% of the bets and 63% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
- 86% of the bets and 77% of the money are on the Phillies on the moneyline.
- 92% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the over.
ASTROS BETTING TRENDS:
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Astros are 33-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Astros’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 26 of Astros’ 64 last games at home
PHILLIES BETTING TRENDS:
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Phillies’ last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Phillies’ 65 last games at home
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”231586″ date=”2024-08-26″][/gameforecast]
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