UFC 305 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn (Saturday, August 17)

Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn Odds

Check out the Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.

This weekend’s UFC 305 fight card has many bouts that are compelling for fun and exciting reasons. But Kenan vs. Glenn could be compelling for reasons that sometimes make us feel uneasy and sad as combat sports fans.

Both of these fighters are battled-tested but now clearly shopworn. Just look at Kenan’s face or Glenn’s mug – those dudes have scrapped their way around the block a time or two, and it’s hard to think they have much left in the tank.

But the name of the game is value, and despite this fight ranking quite high on the Potential Sadness Scale, I see clear value on one side of the matchup.

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Dann Stupp’s Tale of the Tape

Let’s be honest: This one could be over in 10 seconds, or it could be a drawn-out 15-minute affair with two dudes chucking what little they have left.

But given what I’ve seen in recent years, I’m willing to bet Kenan’s power against Glenn’s chin. I feel even more confident about that stance when you also consider this fight is taking place in the 170-pound welterweight division. Glenn, who’s had multiple injury layoffs in recent years, previously fought at 145 and 155 pounds, and as a 35-year-old, I can’t imagine he’s going to pack on much effective weight at this point in his career.

In the stat box above, you’ll see that though the strikes delivered per fight are fairly equal (4.36 for Kenan and 3.94 for Glenn), and Kenan is more hittable (6.38 to 4.10).

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However, Glenn’s average is skewed heavily by a fight with Evan Dunham nearly a decade ago. Additionally, in a recent three-round draw with Grant Dawson, Glenn managed just 22 strikes – five in the first two rounds combined.

A lack of output and a slow start are a recipe for disaster against Kenan. Although the Chinese fighter can be frustratingly patient at times, he charges (and hits) like a rhino once he gets going.

And don’t forget that his early power had UFC golden boy Ian Machado Garry in some serious trouble last year:

SONG DROPPED GARRY 😱 #UFC285 pic.twitter.com/CxDUNHsu9L

— ESPN+ (@ESPNPlus) March 5, 2023

If Glenn can push this fight past the halfway mark, he could possibly gut out a third-round comeback and make it close on the scorecards.

However, I don’t think Kenan will give him the time to do that. And Glenn’s first taste of Kenan’s power could be his last.

Kenan vs. Glenn Pick

I hate ragging on vet vs. vet fights. Take a look at Kenan’s and Glenn’s records. You’ve got 71 professional fights spread across nearly 40 years of competition. They’ve earned my respect and should also have yours.

But this fight is tucked away on the early prelims for a reason, and outside of us bettors, I’m not sure there’s much general interest in it.

I don’t think we need to overthink it, though. Glenn’s chin is as questionable as they come, and his frequent fight cancellations and injury layoffs make me worry about his effectiveness even if he can survive an early onslaught. And he’s likely going to be undersized anyway.

Kenan has his own durability concerns, but I think he’s got the patience and power he needs to lead this fight – and possibly even end it. So I’m taking 1 unit on Kenan’s moneyline and a half unit on Kenan by knockout.

The Picks: Song Kenan (-170 at ESPN BET, 1 unit) | Kenan by TKO/KO/DQ (+148 at BetRivers, 0.5 units)

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