Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes Odds
Check out the Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.
He’s the biggest favorite on Saturday’s card, and he’s teed up for what appears to be an easy win on the early UFC 305 preliminary card.
But when it comes to Nolan vs. Reyes, it could pay to go contrarian.
Let’s jump in with my fight preview.
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Clint MacLean’s Tale of the Tape
| Nolan | Reyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 2:05 | 2:29 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 5’11” |
| Weight (pounds) | 155.5 lbs. | 156 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/8/2000 | 10/2/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 9.26 | 4.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.54 | 10.91 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 40% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 100% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Tom Nolan is one of the hottest Contender-Series-to-UFC prospects, and he fights on home soil Saturday at UFC 305.
Nolan is officially 1-1 in the UFC so far, and six of his eight professional MMA fights have ended inside the distance. This kid is an impressive all-action fighter with a huge frame for the weight class and an impressive offensive skill set.
Nolan is the biggest favorite on the card, sitting as short as -1400 at the time of writing, and he faces big underdog Reyes, who has yet to taste victory in the UFC.
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In his UFC debut in 2017, Reyes was signed to face “Platinum” Mike Perry, and that didn’t go so well for him.
We didn’t see Reyes again until 2023, when he faced Charlie Campbell. And again, he lost in the first very first round.
It isn’t hard to see what UFC officials are looking for in this matchup. They have a 24-year-old all-action stud, and they are lining him up with a 37-year-old with back-to-back KO losses in the first round. The only issue I have with this situation is that Nolan is not the most durable fighter we have ever seen, and he is so aggressive he tends to absorb more damage than he should.
Nolan suffered a KO loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. and he was knocked down by Victor Martinez in his second fight. Nolan did go on to beat Martinez, but it is concerning that he has been dropped in both of his UFC fights. Something not many people are aware of is that Nolan also has a KO loss on his regional record.
Reyes does one thing well, and that is boxing. He has decent power, and nine of his 13 wins have come by knockout – with all nine in the first round.
Nolan vs. Reyes Pick
Everybody I know seems to be sold on Nolan, but I need a little more convincing.
Reyes is a savvy old vet with far more experience than Nolan, and the one thing he does well seems to be the kryptonite for this young striker.
At these insane numbers and based on what we have seen from Nolan so far, I feel like I have to take a small flier on a Reyes knockout at +1400 odds and even sprinkle on a first-round KO at +3300.
Both of those bets are available at bet365 as of Wednesday, and you may find similar or even better prices as other legal sportsbooks begin to open their prop markets for the event.
The Picks: Alex Reyes (+1400 at bet365) | Reyes by Round 1 KO (+3300 at bet365)
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