Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg Odds
Check out the Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for the co-main event on Saturday, August 17.
This weekend’s co-main headliner features potential fireworks at flyweight between top contenders Kara-France and Erceg.
Despite coming out on the wrong end of a competitive split decision to Amir Albazi last time out (in a fight many thought he won), Kara-France still finds himself firmly entrenched in the 125-pound division’s top five.
Looking to take said spot is the somewhat unassuming Erceg, who enters this contest with a No. 7 next to his name.
Even though Erceg is also coming off a loss, the Australian’s stock has arguably risen in defeat given how well he competed with the flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, back in May.
_InlineAdBlock
Dan Tom’s Tale of the Tape
| Kara-France | Erceg | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-11 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:03 | 15:07 |
| Height | 5’4″ | 5’8″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125.5 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/26/1993 | 7/27/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.24 | 4.20 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.63 | 1.24 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 26% |
| TD Def | 88% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Despite Kara-France and Erceg quietly coming from grappling bases, both men are more known for the work they put together on their feet.
Akin to Alexander Volkanovski, Erceg is also an accoladed wrestler in his region of Australia who keeps some solid offensive takedowns in this back pocket.
Although said takedown shots got Erceg into trouble his last time out, the Wilkes Martial Arts product is a jiu-jitsu black belt who appears to be competent from practically any position.
However, it’s in the striking realm where Erceg seems to make the most happen.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/08/Israel-Adesanya-looks-up.jpg” linktext=”UFC 305 Best Bets: 4 Expert Picks for Australia” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/ufc-305-best-picks-expert-picks-saturday-august-17″][/relatedarticle]
An appreciator of the art of eight limbs (muay Thai), Erceg will incorporate many looks into his repertoire that range from variating kick levels at distance to slicing elbows inside of clinch space.
Erceg is also incredibly active and educated with this lead hand, which is something I see being particularly effective against Kara-France.
Although Kara-France has some regional wrestling accolades of his own, the City Kickboxing representative prefers to keep things standing.
Working and feinting off an active lead, Kara-France variates the levels of his jabs in order to set up his patent right hand.
Whether he’s throwing off the counter or when coming forward, Kara-France’s speed and power can change the complexion of a fight at the drop of a dime.
And if Kara-France can get on top, the New Zealander is incredibly effective with his ground-and-pound.
Kara-France vs. Erceg Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the Australian fighter, listing Erceg -175 and Kara-France +138 on the moneyline as of this writing. Despite this line opening slightly wider, money has been trickling in on underdog Kara-France – and I totally get it.
Although Kara-France is coming off two straight losses, they both came opposite top-quality opposition with the Kiwi arguably beating Albazi his last time out.
More importantly, Kara-France will have some stylistic edges in his favor, at least when it comes to landing his right hand. Erceg may be the more offensively potent of the two, but his defense still leaves something to be desired when looking at his propensity to get caught upright.
Should Erceg come into this content too high on his own supply, then we could see a repeat of Dan Hardy’s hometown defeat to Carlos Condit following his failed bid for the title (in what quietly seems to be a classic letdown spot).
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/08/Tai-Tuivasa-walkout.jpg” linktext=”UFC 305 Parlays: Tonight’s +1000 All-KO Play” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mma/ufc-305-parlays-same-game-parlay-saturday-august-17″][/relatedarticle]
That said, I’m seeing more stylistic tics in favor of Erceg when looking at the layout of this fight.
Not only does Erceg offer up the left-sided strikes that have traditionally troubled Kara-France in the past, but the 29-year-old also does well when it comes to mixing in bodywork and the occasional uppercut – all of which I see being effective opposite against the dipping nature and short stature of “Don’t Blink.”
Couple all that with Erceg’s ability to capitalize on opportunistic openings in the grappling department, and I can’t help but side with him to come out of what has all the makings for a stylistically violent affair.
For that reason, if you don’t want to sweat a side, I suggest taking a look at the totals department.
Although I’ll be looking to sprinkle small on Erceg to win inside the distance (which is currently going off in the neighborhood of +300), I can’t turn down plus money in the 2-1 range for a fight that’s guaranteed violence.
The Pick: Kara-France vs. Erceg Under 2.5 rounds (+205 at BetRivers)
_InlineAdBlockRestart