Orioles vs Guardians odds (via ESPN Bet) for Saturday have the Orioles as -115 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u). However, for my Orioles vs Guardians prediction, I’ll be looking at a different market as I see betting value on the run line.
Right-hander Zach Eflin takes the mound for Baltimore, while Cleveland hands the ball to left-hander Joey Cantillo in this clash between two of the best teams in the American League. The Guardians enter Saturday on a five-game winning streak and have their eyes on a series win at Camden Yards.
See how I think Orioles vs Guardians on Saturday, August 3, will play out in my MLB betting preview below.
Orioles vs Guardians Odds & Prediction
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Orioles vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) | Stat | LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 4.11 / 3.47 | ERA /xERA | 8.10 / 10.41 |
| 3.64 / 3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 11.86 / 5.86 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 2.10 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 0% |
| 52% | GB% | 50% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 108 | Location+ | 94 |
Tony Sartori’s Orioles vs Guardians Prediction Preview
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Positive Regression for Zach Eflin?” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/baltimore-orioles” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
It’s been a turbulent season for Eflin, who possesses a 4.11 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. However, his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is looming.
The right-hander owns a 3.47 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Following Eflin is a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
This pitching staff should also receive a solid amount of run support as Baltimore ranks in the top half of the league in home runs, BA, OBP, SLG and wOBA. That success at the dish is likely to continue against Cantillo.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Joey Cantillo in Trouble?” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/cleveland-guardians” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Cantillo only has one MLB start under his belt, but it went extremely poorly. He produced a 8.10 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP across 3 1/3 innings. And somehow, the analytics from that start are even worse.
In that outing, Castillo produced a 10.41 xERA and a .319 xBA. If he qualified, he would rank in the lowest percentile in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That is bad news against an extremely powerful Baltimore lineup.
Speaking of lineups, the clear advantage in that category goes to Baltimore. The Orioles outrank the Guardians in home runs, BA, OBP, SLG and wOBA.
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Orioles vs Guardians Predictions, Betting Analysis
Baltimore is simply the better team in this matchup.
Eflin outranks Cantillo in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate and walk rate. Meanwhile, Baltimore outranks Cleveland in pretty much every category across the board.
I believe there is more value in backing Baltimore on the run line at +125 than laying -130 on the moneyline. After all, Eflin’s team has won by at least two runs in six of his past 10 starts.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+125 at bet365 | Play to +120)
Moneyline
Pass.
I don’t think this is a bad play, but there’s more value in backing Baltimore’s run line.
Run Line (Spread)
Bet the Orioles (-1.5) on the run line. |
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Over/Under
I’m going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many contradicting variables to attack this market. Eflin is due for positive regression, but Cantillo’s underlying metrics are extremely troubling.
Baltimore possesses one of the best lineups in baseball, but Cleveland’s leaves a lot to be desired. Both bullpens are strong, so, if I absolutely had to choose, I would lean toward the under.
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