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In tonight’s NL Central clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates, all eyes will be on the Pirates’ starting pitcher, Paul Skenes.
Known for his impressive first-half performance that has him in the contention for NL Rookie of the Year, Skenes’ return to the mound marks his first start of the second half. As the LSU product takes the mound in this pivotal division matchup, there’s a particular prop bet that stands out for sharp bettors: Skenes’ over/under strikeouts.
The surging right-hander is already 7-2 to the over this season on strikeout over/under props. The line for Skenes’ strikeout total tonight vs. the Cardinals is set at 7.5, with odds at -115.
However, our proprietary PRO Projections offer a compelling reason to consider the under on this prop bet. Our advanced models peg Skenes’ projected strikeout total at 6.54 — a significant gap from the public line. This discrepancy represents a 13.2% edge, a substantial value for bettors well-acquainted with the intricacies of MLB player props.
The PRO Projections signal is critical here, indicating that the market may have slightly overestimated Skenes’ strikeout potential vs. St. Louis. Despite Skenes’ formidable abilities and tendencies to sail over the number, the current projection of 6.54 strikeouts reflects a data-driven approach, and a quick fade on the rookie out the gates.
The 13.2% edge yields a B grade from PRO Projections, and the second-best MLB strikeout prop to consider on the July 23 card.
PRO Projections Pick: Paul Skenes Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
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