The WNBA features an exciting four-game slate for Sunday, July 14:
- Mercury vs. Sun at 1 p.m. ET
- Aces vs. Mystics at 3 p.m. ET
- Fever vs. Lynx at 4 p.m. ET
- Dream vs. Storm at 6 p.m. ET
Read below for my WNBA first basket picks.
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WNBA First Basket Picks: Sunday, July 14
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kelsey Plum First Basket (+950) & Jackie Young First Basket (+1000)” league=”wnba” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/465186_aces1.png” awayname=”Aces” awayslug=”#” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/220965_Mystics.png” homename=”Mystics” homeslug=”#” date=”Sunday, Jul 14″ time=”3:00pm ET” network=”” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Washington has notched the first shot in only 30.4% of their games this season, which is the worst mark across the league. On the other hand, Las Vegas’ 63.6% mark ranks third behind New York and Phoenix. Look for A’ja Wilson to win the tip and give them the first chance to score.
The Mystics are successfully deterring interior shots, as only 45% of opponents’ field goal attempts have come from inside the paint. That’s the lowest percentage among all teams. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense is a jump-shooter’s dream as 25.6% are sourced from above-the-break (3-point territory excluding the corners), which checks in at second largest.
Enter Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young, who respectively average the fifth and seventh most above-the-break attempts per game in the WNBA. They are both efficiently knocking down those looks too. With Washington focused on stopping Wilson and protecting the paint, it should leave Plum and Young relatively open from deep.
Plus, Plum has taken Las Vegas’ first shot in 27.2% of her starts, while Young sits at 23.8%. Only Wilson (31.8%) has a larger percentage of any Aces player.
Frankly, the odds are a bit baffling to me, especially since they have combined to cash first basket in four of the past six games for Las Vegas.
I would play Plum at three quarters a unit and down to +550 odds. I also recommend three quarters of a unit on Young, down to +600 odds.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kayla McBride First Lynx Basket (+280)” league=”wnba” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/538388_fever.png” awayname=”Fever” awayslug=”#” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/640928_Lynx.png” homename=”Lynx” homeslug=”#” date=”Sunday, Jul 14″ time=”4:00pm ET” network=”” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
With Napheesa Collier doubtful to suit up, Kayla McBride (26%) leads the Lynx starters in frequency of taking Minnesota’s first shot of the game.
She averages 6.5 above-the-break attempts per game and converts them at an impressive 44% clip. That bodes well against an Indiana defense that surrenders 25.2% of total field goal attempts from this area – the third largest percentage.
Overall, the Fever allow the fifth largest points per jump shot, and McBride’s 1.18 points per jump shot places her in the 95th percentile via Synergy Sports.
I suggest laying half a unit, down to +250 odds.
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