On a Friday slate that’s full of baseball action, Yankees vs. Orioles specifically is loaded with edges in a variety of markets.
Tonight’s showdown features not only an over/under play between the top two AL East clubs, but also fantastic value for home run picks.
Home run bets are some of the most exhilarating wagers available, and tonight, our advanced models pinpointed two hitters with exceptional value in Friday’s series opener.
PRO Projections, our cutting-edge proprietary betting data, flagged hitters at +1000 and +800 — one from each team — in the home run odds market.
Yankees-Orioles Home Run Picks, Projections
Yankees – Anthony Volpe (+1000)
Volpe, known for his contact and defense, is tabbed with odds at +1000 (FanDuel). At first glance these odds might seem long, but our PRO Projections suggest a different story.
Our advanced betting models project Volpe’s probability of hitting a home run at 0.17, which translates to an implied edge of 6.5% compared to the market odds.
He’s the top hitter in Yankees vs. Orioles from a price standpoint.
Orioles – Ryan Mountcastle (+800)
The Orioles draw Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole. Although Cole is formidable, he has a propensity for allowing the long ball, which bodes well for the power hitters in Friday’s Orioles lineup. Tonight, expert projections are bullish on Ryan Mountcastle.
Friday’s home-run projection places Mountcastle at 0.19, a significant disparity when compared to the +800 odds. This provides the second-largest edge of this AL East tilt (6.2%).
_InlineAdBlock
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.