Two of Wednesday’s top MLB prop bets in PRO feature edges on two of baseball’s best: Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
In today’s MLB prop bet markets, bettors have a wealth of picks to consider in a variety of categories. Our PRO Projections reveal value on both Ohtani and Judge in the same market: home runs.
Judge and Ohtani are No. 1 and 2 in home runs this season, respectively, marking an intriguing storyline entering Wednesday’s matchups.
Ohtani plays on the road tonight against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez. Judge, meanwhile, draws Zach Eflin and the Rays at Tropicana Field.
The twist? Projections show value on one of them to homer and one of them to fade.
MLB Prop Bets for Shohei Ohtani & Aaron Judge
Ohtani’s impressive power at the plate isn’t news to anyone following baseball. He ranks second in the league in home runs, boasting an exceptional slugging percentage against pitchers of all varieties.
What sets him apart in today’s betting landscape is a significant discrepancy between market odds and our advanced analytical projections.
On Wednesday, Ohtani is PRO Projections’ top pick to hit a home run.
The current odds for Ohtani to homer are +450 (BetMGM), while PRO Projections peg his expected homer output at 0.31. That gives bettors an 8.5% edge on the Dodgers phenom to crank one out of Citizens Bank Park.
This opportunity is rare given Ohtani’s high-profile status and the robust line movement typically seen around his props.
Our advanced betting models, which account for player performance trends, matchup dynamics and historical data, highlight this as a prime bet.
PRO Projections Pick: Ohtani to Hit a HR (+450)
PRO Projections not only show value on hitters to record a home run but also suggest which players to fade.
Tonight, fading Aaron Judge and betting on him to be held without a homer (-255, DraftKings) is where the value’s at, as we project him for 0.30 homers.
It’s not as gaudy an edge (5.3%) as the Ohtani prop, but it’s still chunky enough to potentially add on the July 10 betting card.
PRO Projections Pick: Aaron Judge Under 0.5 HRs (-255)
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