“Payoff Pitch” Best Bets Monday (July 1)

The Payoff Pitch Podcast is back for another episode with a few Monday Best Bets.

So, listen to today’s episode and enjoy the picks.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Astros at Blue Jays Under 8.5 (+100)” subtext=”3:07 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/subheader]

By BJ Cunningham

Hunter Brown for the Astros is a big-time positive regression candidate.

His xERA is about a full run lower than his actual ERA. He has incredible Stuff+ numbers, and all his pitches allow under .300 xBA.

He is a tad bit reliant on his fastball, and unfortunately, that is the only pitch the Blue Jays hit well, so you could make a case for Toronto.

Toronto is starting a relief pitcher, and I don’t expect him to pitch deep into the game. However, if they make this a bullpen game, which it appears to be, I project the Blue Jays as slight favorites.

But instead of taking them, I’d feel safer betting under 8.5 runs at -110. I have this projected at 7.8.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Mets ML (-110) at Nationals” subtext=”6:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/subheader]

By BJ Cunningham

Many are in love with Washington’s MacKenzie Gore, and for good reason.

He’s got some of the best Stuff+ ratings in baseball, a 3.8 xERA, outstanding pitching this season, and only a few weaknesses.

He runs into a Mets team that has turned their season around. They rank first in baseball for xBA against left-handed fastballs, a pitch that Gore throws that pitch about 54% of the time.

David Peterson is on for the Mets with an xERA around 6. But, he’s only had five starts up to this point. He’s a league-average pitcher with two good pitches and a below-average fastball.

He will face a Nationals lineup with the third-lowest in WRC+ against lefties.

The Mets will have all of their relievers left, and I have them projected at -132 in this matchup, so I like them at -110.

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