Today’s top pick from MLB PRO Projections is a strikeout prop, but Friday’s card is still chock full of home run props with large edges.
And that includes a +1000 pick among from our expert betting models!
The top home run props for June 28 feature a bet in the early window, and all three listed below are +625 or better at BetMGM.
Home Run Props | Top MLB Picks, Predictions Friday (June 28)
Jazz Chisholm (+1000)
Consensus odds currently list Jazz Chisholm of the Miami Marlins at +1000 to hit a home run, a price that stands out when contrasted with the PRO Projections, which give this bet a B grade. With a projection of 0.22 home runs, the 10.7% edge provided by our advanced betting models reveals a substantial mispricing by the market.
Chisholm’s power at the plate, combined with favorable matchup dynamics and historical data, highlights a solid pick for Marlins vs. Phillies in the early window.
Ryan Mountcastle (+625)
Ryan Mountcastle, the right-handed slugger for the Orioles, has shown immense promise this season and boasts a power profile that analytics-driven bettors should keep an eye on. The projection models expect him to hit .22 home runs, which, when paird with favorable +625 odds, uncovers a 6.8% edge.
Yainer Diaz (+700)
Don’t overlook Yainer Diaz in Astros vs. Mets as our proprietary advanced betting models show significant value in his home run prop.
Diaz’s odds to homer are set at +700 and our projections project him for 0.21 homers tonight. This indicates a valuable 6.4% edge!
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