Padres vs Nationals Odds, Pick & Prop Prediction (6/25)
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The Padres stretched their wild-card lead to 1.5 games with a thrilling four-run 10th inning in last night’s series opening matchup.
San Diego was a huge favorite versus Patrick Corbin on Monday, but is a slight underdog Tuesday in a matchup pitting MacKenzie Gore (3.49 ERA, 80 and 1/3 IP) against Adam Mazur (7.27 ERA, 17 and 1/3 IP).
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The Padres’ strong offensive process was well displayed in the series opener, as they hit to an xBA of .301, struck out just seven times and finally broke through with a four-run 10th inning.
The Padres 85% in-zone contact rate this season ranks second in baseball, while their out-of-zone contact rate ranks first (62%). Their 48.7% chase rate is the lowest mark in MLB.
Over the past 30 days, the Padres own a 122 wRC+. They own the leagues lowest strikeout rate in that span by a wide margin (15.7%) and also have a BB/K of 0.45.
Their offensive upside obviously takes a hit with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined, but the Padres still provide a tougher-than-average matchup for a left-handed starter.
Mazar has pitched to a 5.25 xERA and a 6.56 xFIP throughout his first four starts of the season. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 97, and a Location+ rating of 94.
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Gore’s excellent form this season has been a key reason for the Nationals surprising 38-40 record. The 25-year-old lefty owns a 3.74 xERA and a 3.27 xFIP. His stuff rates out very well as he holds a 114 Stuff+ rating, including a 131 rating on his fastball. He also owns a 100 Location+ rating.
Over his past five starts, Gore has allowed a .264 xBA with a 29% K-rate.
The Nationals’ offense will look to do damage versus an unproven righty in Mazur. Washington has hit to a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. The Nationals have done a good job of avoiding strikeouts all season against right handers and that has held true lately as they hold a K-rate of just 18.7% over the past 30 days.
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This looks like a good spot to sell high on Gore in the strikeout market. Though Gore has gone well over 5.5 strikeouts in five of his past six starts, he’s in a tough spot here versus a Padres team that boasts elite plate discipline versus left-handed pitching.
At +105 there is value betting Gore to go Under 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup, and I’d play anything better than +100.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 Strikeouts +105 (Bet365, Play to +100)
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