Brewers vs Padres Thursday Odds & Prediction (6/20)

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On Thursday night, the Padres will hope to bounce back from an ugly East Coast road swing in which they went 1-5 and lost possession of one of the three NL Wild Card slots. They’re sending Adam Mazur (7.82 ERA, 12 2/3 IP) to the Petco Park mound to take on the Brewers and Bryse Wilson (3.64 ERA, 63 1/3 IP).

Brewers vs Padres odds have the Padres as slight -112 moneyline favorites; the over/under is set at 9 (+100o /-120u) on DraftKings. You can find my betting prediction — a Jackson Merrill player prop — for Brewers vs Padres below.

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Wilson does appear to be a far less effective pitcher in 2024 than he was throughout his excellent 2023 season. His 3.98 ERA even seems to be slightly favorable to his actual level, as he owns a 4.64 xERA and 4.68 xFIP. Over his last seven starts, Wilson has a Hard-hit Rate of 48% with a Strikeout Rate of just 15%.

Wilson’s Stuff+ rating is down to 92 this season, compared to 102 in 2023, while his Location+ rating remains the same at 102.

Batters have a Hard-hit Rate of 56% on Wilson’s strikes this season, and a Chase Rate of just 23%.

Wilson has struggled badly versus left-handed batters by allowing a 1.84 WHIP, a .544 Slug-rate and .404 wOBA this season. Since the 2022 season, left-handed batters have a Hard-hit Rate of 48% against Wilson.

The Brewers have hit to a wRC+ of 101 against right-handed pitching over the last month. They have struck-out 23.1% of the time and made hard contact 30.2% of the time over that span. They have no positions on the IR and should field their top lineup in tonight’s matchup.

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The Padres have one of the more effective lineups in the league against right-handed pitching this season and have remained in strong form recently as well. They have hit to a wRC+ of 111 against right-handed pitching for the season and hit to an identical 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last month. San Diego also has the league’s lowest Strikeout Rate in that span at just 16.2%.

Jackson Merrill has been excellent against righties throughout the start of his strong rookie campaign. He has slugged .435 with a .783 OPS across 84 plate appearances with the sixth-best batting average in the NL versus righties at .310.

Merrill has had an excellent June by hitting to an OPS of .903 and Slugging .590 while missing on just 7% of swings in the strike zone over the last two weeks.

Mazur has underachieved his 4.80 xERA and 4.68 xFIP by some extent, in large part due to a 61% Strand Rate and a .308 BABIP. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Location+ of 94.

[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/06/rickwood-field.jpg” linktext=“Zerillo’s Expert MLB Predictions & Picks for Thursday (June 20)” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-predictions-thursday-expert-picks-odds-preview-today-june-20″][/relatedarticle]

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The moneyline and runline prices in this game are fair because Wilson and Mazur look slightly more comparable than their reputations and ERA suggest. The Padres offense continues to boast a number of highly encouraging signs and has remained one of the best in the league versus right-handed pitching over the last month.

This could be viewed as somewhat of a letdown spot for the Padres as well, as they return home from a lengthy road trip.

It does look like a highly favorable spot for Merrill to continue his strong play in particular. Merrill has been making a ton of hard contact lately and gets a great matchup against a pitcher who has been torched by lefties.

At +125, there is value backing Merrill to record over 1.5 total bases, and I would play this down to +120.

Pick: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 (DraftKings | Play to +120)

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