Cubs vs Reds Odds, Picks & Predictions Saturday (6/1)

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Cubs vs Reds odds for Saturday have the Cubs as -142 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7 (-122o / +102u).

The starting pitching matchup is good one as left-hander Justin Steele (4.45 ERA) of the Cubs takes on Hunter Greene (3.06 ERA) of the Reds. Greene, in particular, enters Saturday in fine form, pitching to a 2.40 ERA over 30 innings (five starts) in May.

For my Cubs vs Reds prediction, I will be looking at the total.

Editor’s Note: The start of the Cubs vs Reds game on Saturday night was delayed by rain. The new start time is 10:35 p.m. ET.

Thank you for your patience. Tonight's game is scheduled to start at 9:35 p.m. https://t.co/Iezctv3UBY

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 2, 2024

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It’s been a turbulent campaign thus far for Steele, who is 0-2 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, that WHIP number is promising, and his underlying metrics suggest the ERA number is also due to drop.

The southpaw has generated a 3.21 xERA this season and ranks in the 69th percentile in xBA. We have already seen this expected positive regression start to kick in, given that Steele is coming off a brilliant seven-inning shutout performance against the Milwaukee Brewers.

There were just six total runs scored in that game.

While Steele should be in line for another good start, I don’t trust this Chicago lineup to give him a ton of run support. This season, the Cubs rank in the bottom 10 of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.

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Chicago’s woes at the dish are likely to continue against Greene, who has been excellent this season. The former No. 2 overall pick is 3-2 with a commanding 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 11 starts.

The right-hander has been particularly dialed in over his past eight starts, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over that stretch. There were seven or fewer total runs scored in five of those eight outings.

Greene’s underlying metrics are somehow even stronger. Currently, he ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA and 95th percentile in xBA.

That success is likely to continue against Chicago, a team Greene is 2-1 against over the past three meetings with a stellar 1.69 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. Following the right-hander is a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

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However, like Steele and Chicago, I am not confident in the amount of run support this Cincinnati pitching staff will receive. The Reds’ lineup has been terrible this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

At the end of the day, these are two excellent pitchers who are more than capable of shutting down two lineups that have generally underperformed. Chicago weather typically plays a big role in these games because of the wind, but the forecast calls for light breezes cutting across from right to left field.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-105 at FanDuel | Play to -110)

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