Pirates vs Blue Jays Odds & Predictions Saturday
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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays continue their interleague series on Saturday at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have won four straight games following their extra-innings win in the series opener – they’ve allowed just seven runs during this winning stretch.
Pirates vs Blue Jays on Saturday features a pitching matchup between Mitch Keller (3.59 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (3.25 ERA).
The latest Pirates vs Blue Jays odds for Saturday have the Blue Jays as -155 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (-110o/ -110u). Find my Pirates vs Blue Jays pick below.
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Keller has a 3.59 ERA and a 4.64 xERA on the bump this year. Regression is in the cards because of his Average Exit Velocity (89.6 mph) and Hard-Hit Rate (17th percentile). One saving grace has been walk rate, which is well above average. He can also get hitters to chase. The Jays are pretty disciplined, but Keller may be able to cut into that.
Offensively, the Pirates had a 90 wRC+ with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate in May off of lefties. Andrew McCutchen and the top of the order has done well against lefties in general. Although the bottom drops off, they should be able to get by Kikuchi.
The Pirates have a 4.43 xFIP in the bullpen and four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00.
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Now, Kikuchi has been better than Keller this year, but Keller has had the superior May. The veteran lefty owns a 3.25 ERA against a 3.16 xERA.
His Average Exit Velocity is 90-plus mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 23rd percentile. His ground-ball rate is slightly above average. He rarely walks many hitters, but in two of his last three starts, he has failed to make it through five innings. This is his biggest concern.
Toronto’s lineup has had better numbers against righties in May. Collectively, the Jays have a sub-18% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate, paired with a 110 wRC+.
That said, their lineup is top heavy as Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are carrying the brunt of the load against righties.
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Neither team is particularly strong right now. Kikuchi has not been great over his last few starts, but Keller seems to be turning a corner.
The bullpens are even and since the lineups are both top heavy, betting the heavy road underdog makes sense in this spot.
Toronto isn’t good enough to justify this line. Take the Pirates from +140 to +115.
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (+146) | Play to +130
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