Indy 500 Odds, Expert Picks: How to Bet the 108th Running of the Indianapolis 500 (Sunday, May 26)

The Indy 500 – The Greatest Spectacle in Racing – is the meat in the middle of the sandwich that is the Memorial Day weekend motorsports triple-header.

And it all takes place today.

After the F1 Monaco Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET), but before NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 (6 p.m. ET), IndyCar takes to the Brickyard for 500 miles – that is, unless weather comes into play.

There’s been plenty of track time between the April open test and the week of practice leading up to this year’s 108th Running of the Indianapolis 500, which was originally scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET but later pushed back to 4:44 p.m. ET due to rain (NBC & Peacock).

I’ve watched every minute of those earlier sessions and listened to every driver interview that I can ahead of the Indy 500 today.

So if you missed any of my early bets, such as my 200-1 longshot or the picks I gave out on Running Hot and Green Dot Daily, I’m here with my top race-day bets for those of you who are looking to bet this race at the last minute.

Indy 500 Best Bets

Indy 500 Winner Bets

Here are my favorite Indy 500 outrights:

Will Power +850

After qualifying, the Penske cars were too short for my liking, but at the time of this writing, Will Power has drifed to +850 at Caesars, which makes him bettable for the win.

The Penske trio rightly should be the favorites, and I actually think Power could arguably be the best of the three.

Common sentiment is Scott McLaughlin or Josef Newgarden should be the favorite with the speed McLaughlin has shown and Newgarden’s win last year and overall oval prowess.

But Newgarden has been just a tick off of his Penske teammates, and, while we should take this with a grain of salt, Graham Rahal noted that McLaughlin’s car didn’t look amazing in traffic on Carb Day.

With three relatively equal Penske cars, we’re splitting hairs here, but also we could just take the longest odds of the three, which is what I’m doing with Power.

Colton Herta +1200

I gave Herta out at +1500 on the Indy 500 episode of Running Hot earlier this week, and I still would back him at 12-1.

Herta has had one of the strongest cars all month. It looks like he’s been able to almost pass other cars at will, and Herta himself said that while last year was his best Indy 500 car ever, this year’s car rivals that, and may be even better.

That’s important because Herta drove from a 21st-place starting spot to as high as fifth before a collision with then-teammate Romain Grosjean on pit road set him back. He still recovered to finish a respectable ninth.

This year Herta starts much closer to the front, just missing out on the Fast 12, and will start on the inside of Row 5 in 13th.

I wouldn’t go lower than 12-1, but both bet365 and ESPN Bet have this, so there are options. And if you’re in one of the few states where Circa Sports operates, they have +1250 available.

Kyle Kirkwood +4000

What’s an Indy 500 without a good long-shot bet?

Full disclosure if you’re new here: Kyle Kirkwood is my favorite driver, but with that comes extra scrutiny from me. I’ve bet him only once in four races this year, so it’s not like I’m blindly backing my favorite driver.

Last year Kirkwood started 15th, but with 33 laps to go, he passed some guy named Josef Newgarden on pure speed for third place. That put him ahead of last year’s eventual winner, and directly behind 2022 winner Marcus Ericsson.

Unfortunately for Kirkwood, a somewhat slow pit stop cycled him out back in effective seventh place.

Instead, what went from a potential race win turned into calamity when Felix Rosenqvist spun out in front of him, leaving Kirkwood nowhere to go. Kirkwood famously flipped upside down after the contact with Rosenqvist, ending the young Floridian’s day 17 laps early.

Kirkwood is Herta’s Andretti Global teammate, and he’s looked nearly as good as Herta in traffic all week. Kirkwood also should have been starting around seventh to ninth place, except he forgot to adjust his weight jacker on his final qualifying lap. As a result, he had to lift and that relegated him a row farther back on the starting grid. Without that subtle little mistake, his odds would be around 25-1.

SuperBook is hanging a 40-1 spot here, but I’m totally on board with betting him at 32-1 at FanDuel or 30-1 at BetMGM.

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Indy 500 Prop Bets

Here are my favorite Indy 500 prop bets:

Colton Herta Top-3 Finish +450

FanDuel still has Andretti Global’s Colton Herta at a generous +450 to finish in the top three. By comparison, DraftKings is hanging this at +230, so make sure to shop this line around if you can.

I’d bet this down to +300.

Kyle Kirkwood Top-5 Finish +320

Like Herta, I’m also willing to back the Andretti duo for a placement finish given how we may need a few extra spots of wiggle room with as strong as the Team Penske cars are.

Kirkwood is +320 at both Caesars and DraftKings.

Helio Castroneves over Ryan Hunter-Reay -115

In a battle of two one-off drivers who are also former winners of this race, I’m going to side with the four-time winner instead of the one-time winner.

For one, Castroneves’ 500 record is better than Hunter-Reay’s even aside from the wins. Second, Castroneves has a very strong race car despite qualifying back in the seventh row to RHR’s fourth-row effort. We know the Chevys made better power in qualifying boost, but in race trim, Helio mentioned how much he liked his car, and that’s echoed throughout the IndyCar paddock as numerous drivers and media members have mentioned how Helio should be a contender on Sunday.

Bet365 has the best odds available on this at -115, but I’d still take -130 or even -135 at BetMGM and Caesars, respectively.

Alexander Rossi -130 over Alex Palou

Here’s another matchup that I think is mispriced, and I’m willing to back the favorite here despite the -130 price tag. Alexander Rossi has been the best McLaren car all week and qualified fourth compared to Alex Palou’s 14th-place qualifying effort.

And in race trim that trend seems to continue. When asked after his Carb Day practice whether he should be considered among the race favorites, Palou answered with a definitive “no” and said he was a ways off from battling with the favorites, though the car finally was to a spot of his liking.

Meanwhile, Rossi has clearly been among the race favorites and should be a heavy favorite to top the defending IndyCar series champion.

This matchup I’ve only seen available at ESPN Bet.

Ed Carpenter Group Winner (vs. Simpson, Daly, Grosjean) +250

Ed Carpenter has a stellar Indy 500 record with top-11 finishes in 10 of his 20 starts here. He goes up against a rookie in Kyffin Simpson, a driver who’s struggled on ovals, and Romain Grosjean and Conor Daly.

Daly ordinarily would give me plenty of concern, and while he was happy with his car (he said it “felt great”), Daly did deal with some gremlins with his weight jacker in Carb Day practice.

Add in the fact that Carpenter starts 12 places ahead of Daly, and he rightly should be the favored driver in this group.

BetMGM has this group, but Bet365 has an alternate version of this group with Marcus Armstrong and Christian Lundgaard replacing Simpson and Grosjean. I prefer the MGM group, but I still like Carpenter in the bet365 group if that’s all you have access to.

Kyle Kirkwood Group Winner & Rinus VeeKay Group Winner (vs. Palou, Ferrucci): +325 and +325

We’ve talked about Palou, but I’m also worried about Santino Ferrucci given his struggles on Carb Day.

Ferrucci twice had to bring his car to the garage for wholesale changes, including once when the team was 3.5% off on the balance. That’s a massive amount in an IndyCar, and he was hoping his crew could right the ship. But there’s enough to be concerned about that he does take a ding in my book.

In addition, he’s also probably around his market peak given his stellar record here. Ferrucci has never finished outside the top 10 despite never driving for a big team.

That leaves room for regression, especially with a smaller team like AJ Foyt Enterprises where issues could certainly crop up more frequently than at bigger teams.

Meanwhile, both Rinus VeeKay and Kirkwood look set to repeat their strong performances from last year. While neither got the finishing result they were looking for, it wasn’t because they didn’t have speed.

I talked about Kirkwood’s race above, but VeeKay was also strong, leading 24 laps but set himself behind with a pit road collision with Palou.

Both drivers have looked the part in practice sessions, so I’ll back them as the two long shots in this group over two potentially overvalued favorites.

This group can be found at BetMGM.