It’s been a rough week for first-inning bets, with a few losing days and no value to be found on Thursday.
We’re back Friday with four more picks and an updated model that rolls in 2024 hitter stats to hopefully improve our accuracy.
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MLB NRFI Picks, Odds Friday: Model Predictions & Bets
Marlins vs. Cubs
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -113 (Bet to -125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mia.png” awayname=”Marlins” awayslug=”Miami-Marlins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” homename=”Cubs” homeslug=”Chicago-Cubs” date=”Friday, April 19″ time=”2:20 p.m. ET” network=”BSSE” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: A.J. Puk vs. Jameson Taillon
Friday’s lone day game has a 9.5-run total, which is nearly enough in and of itself to justify a low-juice YRFI.
Both pitchers involved have somewhat below-average first-time-through-the-order splits as well, which is enough to take the plunge on this bet.
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Astros vs. Nationals
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI +105 (Bet to -110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” awayname=”Astros” awayslug=”Houston-astros” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/wsh.png” homename=”Nationals” homeslug=”washington-nationals” date=”Friday, April 19″ time=”6:45 p.m. ET” network=”BSSE” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander vs. Mackenzie Gore
While most of the equity is coming on the Houston side — it has a team wRC+ of 126 that jumps to 140 against lefties like Gore — I also have the Nationals projected decently here.
It’s the first appearance of 2024 for Justin Verlander, so there could be some rust to knock off.
He also had an xFIP of 4.90 his first time through the order last year — and he probably isn’t getting better at age 41.
Brewers vs. Cardinals
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NRFI -120 (Bet to -135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Brewers” awayslug=”Milwaukee-Brewers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png” homename=”Cardinals” homeslug=”st-louis-cardinals” date=”Friday, April 19″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”BSSE” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Kyle Gibson
I’m surprised we’re even getting -120 on a NRFI in a game with a 7.5-run total, which gives us a solid starting point.
On top of that, neither lineup is especially impressive through the first three hitters, at least while Milwaukee is without Christian Yelich.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NRFI -130 (Bet to -135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sf.png” homename=”Giants” homeslug=”san-francisco-giants” date=”Friday, April 19″ time=”10:15 p.m. ET” network=”BSSE” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Blake Snell
This game projects similarly to Brewers-Cardinals, with a 7.5-run total.
The price we’re getting is a bit worse, but the pitching is a bit better, so it evens out.
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