MLB Opening Day was affected by weather before the clock even struck midnight on Thursday, as both the Brewers vs Mets and Braves vs Phillies opening games were postponed. And as we approach first pitch of Opening Day 2024, there’s a bit more inclement weather in the MLB Opening Day weather forecasts around the league.
Early season MLB betting provides us with a unique opportunity to take advantage of some cold weather that we don’t often see throughout the course of the season.
The edge in early season is typically found in Under bets, with games often being played in temperatures in the 40s and 50s. That cold air is dense air, and it limits how far a ball will carry and how many home runs we will see, helping us to cash in on some Unders.
This season is no different, with MLB Opening Day 2024 providing us some cold and wet games that (if they play at all) should be great weather for Under bets. After looking through some bets by Action Network bettors and Action Network’s projection system, here are a handful of my favorite weather-related bets on Opening Day, straight from the meteorologist’s mouth (that’s me, @KevinRothWx).
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MLB Opening Day Weather Forecasts
Weather forecasts for MLB and PGA available every day at Rotogrinders.com. Forecasts only available for outdoor games.
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Rain in the forecast. Set to start on time. Temp in the 50s, winds blowing in. Good pitching weather.
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A rare “open roof” game is likely in Houston. Sunny, mid-70s, light winds… Solid hitting weather, and now that I see this forecast, I’m highly considering buying a ticket.
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Chilly with a 50 degree temp, wind blowing out to left at 10-15 mph.
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Sunny, temp in the 60s, winds blowing out to center at 15 mph. It would better for hitters if it were warmer, but compared to most other outdoor games on Opening Day, it’s still a solid hitting spot.
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Temp in the 50s, winds blowing out to left-center at 10 mph.
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Temp in the 60s, winds in from left at 10 mph.
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Temp in the 60s, winds blowing out to center-ish at 10-15 mph.
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I’d expect an open roof, with light winds and temps in the 60s.
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Temp in the 50s, light winds.
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Weather-Based Bets for MLB Opening Day
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My favorite “bad weather under” bets were in Philly and New York, where the rain has already washed those games off the Opening Day slate. The only one that remains (for now?) is Baltimore, where the rain will clear earlier and a late start could make the game playable.
What I like about this game is not the rain, however — it’s the temp and the wind. With winds blowing in from left at 10-15 mph and a temperature in the 50s, home runs should be at a premium and scoring held down.
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While much of the early season focus will be on finding “bad-weather” spots, we can still find some occasional solid hitting weather early in the season, and KC is one such spot for Opening Day.
The temperature will be mild, in the 60s (I’d prefer warmer, but I’ll take it), with winds blowing out to center at 15 mph. The weather here should give a bit of a boost to home-run hitters, and if you have a favorite HR prop to bet, I like the chances in KC’s weather much better than some of the other games we’re dealing with.
If you’re looking for the best value on HR props for Twins vs Royals — or any other game, check out the Action Network PRO player prop projections! There, you’ll find the projected edge on any of our top player props, from strikeouts to HRs and much more.
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Throughout the season, I’ll keep an eye on some weather totals and props, and highlight my favorites. Happy MLB Opening Day to all!
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