Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick Odds
Here’s everything you need to know about Andrea Lee vs. Miranda Maverick at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
UFC 298 kicks off with women’s flyweights Lee and Maverick headed in different directions. Lee looks to snap a three-fight skid while Maverick looks to continue her rise up the ranks – this time as a betting favorite against a known commodity.
Here’s my Lee vs. Maverick pick and prediction.
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Tale of the Tape
| Lee | Maverick | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-8 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:05 | 12:26 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’3″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 125.5 lbs. | 126 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69″ | 65″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1989 | 7/1/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 2.62 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.84 | 2.41 |
| TD Acc | 57% | 48% |
| TD Def | 54% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Both flyweights are better than their recent records indicate; you can take more away from their losses to the likes of Natalia Silva, Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber – all of whom may eventually contend for a title – than you can credit in some of their wins.
While I don’t project value on either side of Saturday’s opener, I lean to the favorite, Maverick, as the correct side to bet on in this contest.
Maverick is eight years younger than Lee in a smaller division where fractional differences in speed and athleticism can prove crucial. When there is at least an eight-year age gap between MMA combatants, the younger fighter has won 68.5% of the time at average odds of -123 (55.3% implied) – more than 13% above expectation.
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Lee owns a four-inch reach advantage, but Maverick has the better striking stats at a distance, out-landing opponents by a margin of 1.7 strikes per minute, compared to 1.1 for Lee.
Maverick spends a higher percentage of her fights grappling (54% vs. 38% for Lee) – averaging nearly two additional takedown attempts per round (3.6 vs. 1.7). She also has a better top game than Lee to consolidate position.
The striking exchanges should be competitive – if not slightly favor Lee – but I expect Maverick to prove the superior offensive grappler and to pull away from Lee with control time and ground strikes, so long as she commits to her wrestling.
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Lee vs. Maverick Pick
I projected Maverick as a -175 favorite (63.6% implied), and I expect the fight to reach a decision 74% of the time. As a result, I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total in this matchup. The closest thing I can find to a value bet is Lee by decision (projected +243, listed +245).
If her moneyline doesn’t drop into that -175 range pre-fight, I’d rather wait to find a better live price on Maverick, who should have a cardio advantage in the third round of this matchup.
The Pick: Miranda Maverick Live after Round 1
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