Despite 59 lined games on Thursday’s schedule, there are just three top-25 teams in action, which could certainly have an impact on how bettors approach tonight’s college basketball picks.
As we know, recreational bettors prefer high-profile games between blue-blood programs and/or top-25 teams, and the lack thereof might impact tonight’s handle.
But just because star power may be missing from a slate doesn’t mean it’s not worth betting because, with nearly 60 matchups, there are plenty of opportunities to find value.
Action Network’s PRO betting tools don’t care about the names on the front of the jerseys either and have identified South Florida vs. No. 10 Memphis (7 p.m. ET), Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota (8 p.m. ET) and No. 14 Illinois vs. Michigan (8:30 p.m. ET) as three of Thursday’s smartest college basketball picks.
Let’s dig in.
Tonight’s College Basketball Picks
*College basketball odds as of Thursday morning
South Florida vs. Memphis Pick
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Let’s start with South Florida vs. Memphis, which includes savvy bettors making large wagers on the spread.
The Bulls opened as 13.5-point underdogs in this matchup, but sharps have steamed USF twice thus far, driving this line down to between +11.5 and +12.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the resources and respect to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
In addition, Action Network’s college basketball public betting data is reporting that South Florida has attracted 73% of the money wagered on the spread on just 33% of the tickets, showing just how heavy oddsmakers are with underdog money in this game.
PRO Report Pick: South Florida +12.5 (-110) via BetMGM
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Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota Pick
8 p.m. ET | Summit League Network
Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota is a classic case of wiseguys pounding one side of the spread and forcing a market-wide adjustment from oddsmakers.
Per Action Labs’ Bet Signals, sharps quietly steamed North Dakota shortly after this line opened, pushing the line from +2.5 to +1.5 at essentially every shop as of the time of writing.
PRO Report Pick: North Dakota +1.5 (-110) via Caesars
Illinois vs. Michigan Pick
8:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Similar to the games above, sharps have already impacted this spread, moving it from Illinois -1.5 to -2.5 in this instance, and Action Network’s PRO Projections are still finding a significant edge at this price.
In fact, our betting model projects the spread at Illini -6, which translates to a 10.5% edge even after the 1-point line move.
PRO Report Pick: Illinois -2.5 (-110) via BetMGM
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