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maryland vs auburn-odds-pick-prediction-music city bowl-betting preview-dec 30

Maryland vs Auburn Odds, Pick, Prediction | Music City Bowl Betting Preview

Maryland vs Auburn Odds

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The Maryland Terrapins and Auburn Tigers square off in Nashville on Saturday morning in the Music City Bowl.

This is always one of my favorite bowls of the year, pitting a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team against a middle-of-the-road SEC unit.

Both teams should want to be here, and I’d expect each fan base to represent pretty well from a travel perspective. There are worse places to spend New Year’s than Nashville.

Auburn has steamed to right around a 6.5- or 7-point favorite at the time of writing. Let’s discuss why that’s the case and where the betting value resides.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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As mentioned, the spread in this game jumped about 4.5 points in Auburn’s direction last week. The reason? Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has decided to opt out to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Billy Edwards Jr., a redshirt sophomore who saw plenty of action in 2022 as well as this year, will start for the Terrapins.

Edwards is a big body and a physical runner inside the tackles, which will bring a totally new dimension to the Terrapin offense.

In addition to Tagovailoa, the Terps will be without cornerback Tarheeb Still, tight end Corey Dyches and linebacker Jaishawn Barham.

All other starters are expected to be a go for Mike Locksley’s group.

When Maryland’s defense is on the field, getting into the backfield and creating some negative plays will be critical. Auburn has struggled all year when its offense has gotten behind schedule.

Additionally, keeping a spy on Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne will be important, as he has been more effective with his legs than his arm at times this season.

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It was a roller coaster ride of a season for Hugh Freeze and company in his first year as the head man for Auburn.

The buzz around the program entering this game would certainly be a lot higher if not for the miraculous Alabama escape at Jordan-Hare Stadium in the final minute.

Given that was the last time this Auburn team played, it’s fair to question if there will be a little bit of a hangover effect following an absolute heartbreaker to its arch-rival.

Additionally, Auburn will be without some key pieces due to opt-outs/the transfer portal, including wide receiver Malcolm Johnson Jr., cornerback DJ James and defensive tackle Marcus Harris.

The defense carried the load for the Tigers all season, but if there was an area to exploit, it was on the ground.

Containing Maryland running back Roman Hemby will be key if Auburn wants to slow down the Terrapin offense.

On the other side, Auburn struggled to find consistently moving the ball all season.

The passing attack, in particular, is what really held the Tigers back, as Thorne — a Michigan State transfer — could not find the same level of success down the field that he did in East Lansing.

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Bet Auburn vs. Maryland with the latest BetMGM bonus code.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Auburn match up statistically:

Auburn Offense vs Maryland Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 16 95
Line Yards 59 96
Pass Success 102 49
Havoc 108 85
Finishing Drives 58 59
Quality Drives 77 56
Maryland Offense vs Auburn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 73
Line Yards 84 40
Pass Success 32 40
Havoc 15 37
Finishing Drives 47 55
Quality Drives 52 39
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 40 28
PFF Coverage 19 36
Special Teams SP+ 25 63
Middle 8 4 50
Seconds per Play 27.6 (80) 25.4 (32)
Rush Rate 63.5% (12) 43.6% (123)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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When this line opened with Auburn as a 2.5-point favorite, I had a slight lean toward the Tigers.

However, I believe the market has over-adjusted after the news of Tagovailoa sitting out was announced.

Edwards has plenty of experience in big games, and he’s actually the much better runner of the two quarterbacks.

Expect Maryland to shift its offensive approach to a more ground-heavy attack, which is where teams can find some success against Auburn.

I expect this to be a tight one-possession game throughout, so I will gladly back the Terps now that they’re catching close to a touchdown.

Pick: Maryland +6.5 (Play to +6)

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Mike McNamara

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