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Making a pick for this game is tricky. I was all about Hunter Henry in a juicy matchup against the Broncos defense, but he was ruled out with a knee injury. Mike Gesicki should be a bump in usage and is worth a dart throw — his best odds are at FanDuel (+550).
As for a Broncos touchdown scorer, Courtland Sutton has made me a lot of money this year with 10 TDs in 14 games. He’s been Russell Wilson’s top target in the red zone. However, the Patriots also know this and no one is better at taking away the first option than Bill Belichick. That’s part of the reason why the Pats rank second in DVOA vs. WR1s and 10th vs. the deep pass.
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You almost want to consider Jerry Jeudy, but the Pats play man coverage at a top-five rate and Jeudy has been horrendous against man this season. That being said, Jeudy’s seen six red-zone targets over his last five games.
Jeudy’s just a lean for me, but I don’t love it.
Lean: Jerry Jeudy Anytime Touchdown (+270)
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