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appalachian state vs georgia southern-odds-prediction-pick-nov 25

Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern Odds, Prediction, Pick | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Nov. 25)

Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern Odds

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Two fierce rivals meet up in the matchup known as “Deeper Than Hate.”

Last year’s game was one for the ages, as Georgia Southern won in double overtime. App State is out for revenge, so let’s get right to the pick.

Read on for my Appalachian State vs Georgia Southern Odds, Prediction, Pick and our College Football Betting Preview for Saturday, Nov. 25.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Georgia Southern Eagles” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/gso.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/georgia-southern-eagles” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The Eagles head to the North Carolina mountains looking to snap a three-game losing streak, an exact replica of last year’s scenario.

Georgia Southern is an offense-first outfit with the scoring attack ranking 65 spots higher in SP+ than the defense. The Eagles’ offense ranks 45th, the defense is 110th.

The Eagles run an RPO-heavy offense and quarterback Davis Brin operates a high-completion, dink-and-dunk attack. The Tulsa transfer has completed 64% of his passes but at only 6.7 yards per attempt. He’s also prone to interceptions.

The Eagles are effective when they run the ball — Jalen White is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and OJ Arnold averages 6.4 — but they have one of the lowest rush rates in the country.

They might be wise to run the ball more this game, as App State’s run defense ranks 91st in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

The Georgia Southern defense is a mess and is 88th in Success Rate and 73rd defending explosives. The Eagles do thrive in one area though. Coordinator Brandon Bailey preaches havoc and his unit ranks fifth in the country in creating those kinds of drive-defining negative plays.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”App State Mountaineers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/appalachian-state-mountaineers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

If you like storylines and situational spots, the Mountaineers are the team to back.

This game has postseason stakes for App State, but none for Georgia Southern. If James Madison defeats Coastal Carolina and App State wins, the Mountaineers will earn a spot in the conference title game.

Additionally, this is a revenge spot for App State after last season’s loss.

The program will also be retiring the jersey of legendary quarterback Armanti Edwards, a national champion and the architect of the historic win over Michigan in 2007.

On the field, App State is better than Georgia Southern and has a few matchup advantages. Like the Eagles, the Mountaineers are an offense-first team, ranking 26th in offensive SP+ and 91st on defense.

The passing game will exploit Georgia Southern’s leaky defense. Quarterback Joey Aguilar is an audacious playmaker, buying time with his legs and delivering on the old adage, “He just looks like a kid having fun out there.”

With dynamic receivers — led by upperclassmen Kaedin Robinson and Christian Horn — App State’s passing attack is 14th in Success Rate and 24th in explosives. The Mountaineers should have a field day against an Eagles defense that is 98th in passing success allowed.

App State’s defense is middle of the pack against the pass, but pretty bad against the rush: 48th in EPA defending the pass, 127th in EPA defending the rush. Luckily for them, the Eagles prefer to move the ball through the air and rank 130th in the nation in rush rate.

Lastly, scoring chances figure to favor App State significantly.

Georgia Southern’s defense is one of the worst at Finishing Drives, ranking 122nd. Its offense, for all its strengths, struggles to make the most of its own opportunities and ranks 90th. Meanwhile, App State’s defense is ninth in the country in that metric.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Appalachian State match up statistically:

Georgia Southern Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 29 90
Line Yards 42 115
Pass Success 33 47
Havoc 24 80
Finishing Drives 90 9
Quality Drives 10 49
Appalachian State Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 92 76
Line Yards 49 73
Pass Success 14 70
Havoc 22 16
Finishing Drives 73 122
Quality Drives 31 54
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 43 66
PFF Coverage 62 16
Special Teams SP+ 63 37
Middle 8 21 19
Seconds per Play 25.1 (32) 25.7 (39)
Rush Rate 40.1% (130) 53.4% (55)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

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This game is going to be high-scoring, as neither team plays much defense and both offenses play fast.

Last year’s game was one of the most thrilling shootouts of the season, and this year’s version could be a repeat.

I have thrown some couch cushion money on Over 63, but the real play is to take App State and the points. Both teams are built similarly, but the Mountaineers are executing at a higher level right now.

I’ll take App State to cover the 8.5 and will play it to 10.

Pick: Appalachian State -8.5

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