The process of identifying the smartest NFL spread and over/under predictions for Sunday’s Week 11 slate is a bit different than what we’ve used in the recent past.
We’ve leaned heavily on the Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections over the last few weeks to find the best NFL predictions and biggest betting edges, though spreads and over/under for Week 11 are essentially right on our projections.
With that said, there are a handful of other value indicators popping for Sunday’s Week 11 slate, including a surprising favorite that sharps are betting, an ugly underdog offering historical betting value and an over/under situational play with a 19-5-1 (79.2%) record this season while also covering at a 57% rate over the past 21 NFL seasons.
Find NFL spread and over/under predictions below for Week 11.
NFL Spread, Over/Under Predictions
*NFL odds as of Saturday evening
Giants vs. Commanders Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
I’m saying this not only as a Giants fan but also as an NFL fan in general: Woof.
New York is absolutely ravaged by injuries, while Washington quarterback Sam Howell is experiencing the growing pains that most young signal-callers have to navigate.
And even though the idea of risking anything on the Giants to play a competitive game is scary, the fact that New York has been so terrible lately is why it is undervalued in Week 11.
Last week the Giants got blown out by Dallas, 49-17, making them a match for our Dogs After Blowout PRO Betting System.
This simple strategy, which includes underdogs of at least three points coming off losses of at least 20 points, have produced a steady 325-236-13 (58%) against-the-spread (ATS) win rate dating back to 2003.
Further, this spread is anywhere between New York +8.5 and +9, so be sure to shop for the best odds to ensure you’re locking in New York at the best price possible if holding your nose and taking the points in this matchup.
PRO Report Prediction: Giants +9
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Raiders vs. Dolphins Prediction
1 p.m. ET | CBS
The Dolphins opened as double-digit favorites against the Raiders and sharp bettors still thought that number was too short.
According to Action Labs’ Bet Signals, respected bettors have steamed Miami consistently throughout the week, pushing this spread all the way out to between -13.5 and -14 depending on the book.
It shouldn’t be hard to find Miami -13.5 vs. -14, but it’s important to make sure you do just that if backing the favorite here.
PRO Report Prediction: Dolphins -13.5
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Prediction
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
San Francisco’s offense came out of a bye and got back on track last week against Jacksonville, so, of course, the data suggests betting the Buccaneers vs. 49ers under.
To start, big bets from savvy players have already knocked this total down from 42.5 to 41.5 as of the time of writing.
In addition, the under is a match for our High Winds PRO Betting System that is 19-5-1 (79.2%) this season and 586-444-9 (57%) since the start of the 2003 NFL season.
PRO Report Prediction: Under 41.5