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Toledo vs Bowling Green Odds & Pick: How to Bet Tuesday’s MAC Clash

Toledo Rockets vs Bowling Green Falcons Odds

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The Bowling Green Falcons will host the Toledo Rockets in Bowling Green, Ohio, tonight.

The Rockets have already clinched their spot in the MAC title game, but they’ve yet to show signs of losing motivation.

Just like in any other MAC matchup, I’m sure we’re in for some bizarre action.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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The Rockets offense has been far and away the most consistent in the MAC. Toledo is led by its explosive rushing attack, but it was the aerial attack that did the majority of the damage last week.

Quarterback Dequan Finn might’ve had his best game of the season, as he threw for over 400 yards with a trio of touchdown passes. It was an impressive performance for Finn, who has the matchup this week to repeat that type of performance.

Toledo is eighth in the nation in Passing Success Rate, and although the Falcons have a decent secondary, I have no doubt the Rockets will have success through the air.

However, I have a feeling they may not need to rely on Finn’s arm in this game.

Toledo’s running backs have likely been licking their chops for this week’s matchup.

This offense, which ranks 26th in Rushing Success Rate and 13th in Line Yards, should be able to consistently move the chains against the Falcons’ dreadful defensive front. The Falcons come in at 113th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 104th in Line Yards.

I don’t see Toledo’s offense getting stopped unless there are some self-inflicted wounds; they just have way too many advantages on this side of the ball.

Defensively, this group isn’t as elite, but there are some key metrics that lead me to believe they’ll shut down any sort of offensive threat. Most notably, the Rockets are top-25 in both Defensive Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.

The Rockets can be susceptible to giving up some explosive runs, but Falcons running back Terion Stewart is a game-time decision.

Even if Stewart plays, he won’t be 100%, so I have no worries about the Rockets in this matchup.

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I was completely wrong about the under in last week’s game against Kent State. The Falcons shredded the Golden Flashes defense and cleared the total by themselves.

Bowling Green put up 476 total yards and simply couldn’t be stopped. Quarterback Connor Bazelak threw for only 188 yards, and he will have his hands full this week.

The Rockets defense ranks 10th in Passing Success Rate, an area the Falcons have struggled in all season. Bowling Green is also going up against the No. 1 team in the nation in PFF coverage grading, so these receivers are going to have a hard time finding separation.

Despite the offensive explosion last week, this offense is in big trouble.

I mentioned above that Stewart is a game-time decision, and he really is crucial for this offense. I doubt he’ll be fully healthy if he ends up playing, but he’d at least help out Bazelak in early-down situations.

The Falcons’ defensive front is bound to get pushed around by the Rockets, so I doubt they’ll have any success running the ball. This group is also 124th in Havoc Allowed, so Bazelek could be facing heavy pressure throughout the game.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Toledo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 26 113
Line Yards 13 104
Pass Success 8 65
Havoc 25 97
Finishing Drives 11 50
Quality Drives 47 56
Bowling Green Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 63 75
Line Yards 89 90
Pass Success 96 10
Havoc 124 62
Finishing Drives 94 25
Quality Drives 93 26
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 8 14
PFF Coverage 1 27
Special Teams SP+ 44 121
Middle 8 14 28
Seconds per Play 26.1 (51) 30.8 (129)
Rush Rate 61.0% (9) 58.4% (29)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m a bit surprised to see the lack of respect the Rockets are getting in the market. I may wait to take them before kick, but I love Toledo in this spot.

They have nothing to play for, but they have way too many advantages on both sides of the ball. Toledo could likely run its way to a victory without Finn doing any heavy lifting.

The Falcons are getting way too much respect from the public in this game, and I don’t think people realize how fraudulent their 6-4 record is. If Stewart was completely healthy, maybe it would be a different story.

I’ll wait to see if Stewart is active, as we may be able to get an extra point or two of value. Regardless, the Rockets should absolutely roll here.

Pick: Toledo -10 (Play to -11)

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John Feltman

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