Indiana vs Illinois Odds
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It’s time to jump into the college football odds for Indiana vs. Illinois and find a pick for Saturday’s game in this NCAAF betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 11.
We’ve got a Big Ten matchup between two teams that are evenly matched.
I wish I could say that this would lead to a great game. It’ll be close, but will it be a good game? With a total of 43.5, oddsmakers think this will be a defensive battle (euphemism for a possible snoozefest).
Despite playing in the Big Ten, both teams are even or better on their overs (IU: 4-4-1, Illinois: 6-2), so don’t think this is a blind Big Ten under.
Both teams will be coming into this game sub .500, but both are battling for a postseason berth.
Despite being 3-6, a bowl appearance is still in the cards for the Hoosiers, who finish the season with Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue.
The Fighting Illini are in an even better spot, with a 4-5 record and Indiana, Iowa and Northwestern left.
Neither of these teams will have written off the season yet, but a loss here is devastating to either team’s bowl prospects. So, expect to see two teams fighting tooth and nail on Saturday.
Hopefully, it turns into a real football game, not the rockfights competitive Big Ten games have been this season.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Indiana Hoosiers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/indiana-hoosiers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
The Indiana Hoosiers have had a rough season. Escaping Akron with a two-point victory at home was the highlight until their win over Wisconsin last week.
The disappointment driver? The offense.
The Hoosiers rank 113th in Success Rate, 115th in Explosiveness, 89th in Havoc Allowed and 130th in Points per Opportunity.
Honestly, Indiana is lucky Brian Ferentz is in the Big Ten, or else it may be the main focus of the ire of offensively frustrated Midwestern college football fans.
Neither the Hoosiers’ pass nor run game has been a bright spot, although they are slightly better when rushing the rock, ranking 69th in Rush Success Rate, as opposed to 126th in Pass Success Rate.
They haven’t had much help under center, where their two qualified quarterbacks have Pro Football Focus passing grades of 62 and 58, respectively.
The defense is similarly bad. The Hoosiers rank 114th in Success Rate allowed, 79th in Points per Opportunity Allowed and 76th in Havoc.
Historically, Tom Allen’s teams have been good enough on defense to pick the offense up, but not this year.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Illinois Fighting Illini” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/illinois-fighting-illini” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
We just outlined why Indiana doesn’t have a barn-burning offense, but Illinois isn’t exactly running people off the field.
The Illini rank 109th in Explosiveness and 83rd in Points per Opportunity. The silver lining is that they’re decently efficient, ranking 51st in Success Rate.
Another silver lining is that Illinois’ passing attack is decent. They rank 51st in Pass Success Rate and 66th in total Passing PPA.
Illinois has the better quarterback in this matchup, Luke Altmyer, who’s rocking a 70.8 PFF passing grade.
They struggle to run the ball, ranking 91st in Rush Success Rate. So, look for the Illini to keep the ball in the air.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Illinois match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Illinois Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 126 | 91 |
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| Line Yards | 54 | 108 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 69 | 74 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 66 | 117 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 130 | 96 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 73 | 107 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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Illinois Offense vs. Indiana Defense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois Fighting Illini” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png” slug=”illinois-fighting-illini”][/teamlogo]
Offense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana Hoosiers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png” slug=”indiana-hoosiers”][/teamlogo]
Defense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo]
Edge
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| Rush Success | 48 | 121 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 31 | 118 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 51 | 93 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 113 | 67 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 83 | 79 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 118 | 80 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Indiana” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/iu.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Illinois Fighting Illini” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 12 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 63 | 102 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 10 | 75 |
| Middle 8 | 131 | 80 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (81) | 25.3 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 53.5% (69) | 50.8% (100) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Indiana vs Illinois” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
I think Illinois is the better team in this matchup, as that Indiana defense is just not making up for the offense as it has in years past.
I don’t think the Illini will run Indiana off the field, but I’ll back the team with the better offense and defense in this one.
Pick: Illinois -6.5
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