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college football odds-pick-kansas jayhawks vs iowa state cyclones-november 4

Kansas vs Iowa State Odds, Prediction, Pick: How to Bet Big 12 Showdown

It’s time to dive into Kansas vs. Iowa State odds and make a prediction and pick for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown.

Kansas Jayhawks vs Iowa State Cyclones Odds

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After stunning Oklahoma last week in Lawrence, Kansas travels to Ames for a huge game in the Big 12 against Iowa State.

Kansas’ victory over the Sooners forced a five-way tie atop the Big 12 standings with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State all sitting at 4-1 in conference play. So, this is actually one of the biggest games of the weekend across college football.

Kansas, whose two conference losses this season came against Oklahoma State and Texas, are technically alive for a shot at the Big 12 title game, but the Jayhawks need to win in Ames on Saturday to have a chance.

After losing to Iowa and Ohio in the non-conference portion of the schedule, Iowa State has very quietly won four of its first five games in Big 12 play with their only loss coming to Oklahoma on the road.

The Cyclones still have to play both Texas and Kansas State to finish out the season, but a win here and another against BYU next week puts them in a great position to potentially play spoiler and get to the Big 12 Championship.

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Kansas’ offense has been awesome this season, despite the inconsistent play of quarterback Jason Bean. The Jayhawks rank top-5 in the country in both Success Rate and EPA/Play while averaging 6.7 yards per play.

The rushing attack is what makes Kansas so incredibly dangerous. The Jayhawks run the ball on 59.1% of their offensive snaps and sit top-10 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.

Running back Devin Neal is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and has forced 35 missed tackles already this season.

Kansas is an incredibly difficult offense to prepare for because it uses more pre-snap motion than any team in the country, which is one of the reasons why its offense has been so effective.

The problem is, the Jayhawks can’t stop anyone on defense. Even though they come into the game with a 6-2 record, they’re 117th in Success Rate Allowed, 112th in EPA/Play Allowed and 124th in Finishing Drives Allowed.

The main issues have been stopping the run. Kansas is getting pushed around up front, ranking 116th in Defensive Line Yards and 117th in Stuff Rate. Their last three game against Oklahoma State, UCF and Oklahoma haven’t been pretty as they have allowed those three teams to average 5.3 yards per carry.

Even though Iowa State’s offense has been below average, it should find a way to move the ball effectively against this Kansas defense.

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The Cyclones didn’t have high expectations coming into the season with Hunter Dekkers getting suspended for the year, but Rocco Becht has performed pretty well as the starting quarterback.

He’s attempted more than 40 passes just once this season, so Iowa State doesn’t typically throw the ball at a high rate unless it has to. However, Becht does have a positive EPA on the season and is averaging a respectable 7.2 yards per attempt.

The key for the Cyclones is keeping a clean pocket for Becht. When he does have a clean pocket, he is an above-average quarterback, but when he’s under pressure — which has happened on more than 31% of his dropbacks this season — he has struggled.

Via PFF

Lead back Eli Sanders has been an effective runner for the Cyclones, averaging 4.8 yards per carry with one of the worst offensive lines in college football in front of him.

Iowa State has a very average defense against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry while ranking 60th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When the Cyclones have faced other good rushing attacks like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State they have struggled; the Sooners and Cowboys combined for 4.7 yards per carry in those games.

Kansas, it would be safe to assume, should be able to run the ball with success on Saturday.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Iowa State match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 8 56
Line Yards 3 37
Pass Success 8 36
Havoc 27 66
Finishing Drives 33 34
Quality Drives 32 28
Iowa State Offense vs Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 129 112
Line Yards 132 116
Pass Success 104 73
Havoc 50 6
Finishing Drives 83 122
Quality Drives 62 114
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 117 87
PFF Coverage 51 13
Special Teams SP+ 28 33
Middle 8 20 30
Seconds per Play 29.0 (101) 29.5 (112)
Rush Rate 60.2% (16) 50.7% (76)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Kansas is at too opposite ends of the spectrum with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in the Power Five. That has created a lot of high-scoring games this season even though the Jayhawks are playing at a pretty slow pace.

Their ability to run the ball against a very average Iowa State front seven is going to be key in this game, especially since they are running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive plays.

Another big factor: Neither of these teams can really tackle effectively, which is a problem when you are facing such elusive runners and receivers who have big-play ability. Both Kansas and Iowa State are outside the top 85 in PFF tackling grade, so it’s likely we will see some big runs off of missed tackles.

I have 59.5 points projected for this game, so I like the value on Over 52.5 points, as it’s never a bad idea to back an over in a Lance Leipold-coached game.


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Brad Cunningham

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