Marshall vs App State Odds, Picks: Bet the Mountaineers?

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png” awayname=”Marshall” awayslug=”marshall-thundering-herd” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” homename=”Appalachian State” homeslug=”appalachian-state-mountaineers” date=”Saturday, Nov. 4″ time=”6 p.m. ET” network=”NFL Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3″ col1awayline=”-105″ col1hometext=”-3″ col1homeline=”-115″ col2awaytext=”55.5″ col2hometext=”55.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+135″ col3hometext=”-160″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

College football’s realignment obsession has taken away many important rivalry games, but the Sun Belt has done its realignment right.

Plucking Marshall from Conference USA allowed the league to bring back the Old Mountain Feud.

After a few dormant decades, this will be the fourth straight matchup between these teams, each of which has been won by the home side.

So, let’s get right into our pick for Marshall vs. Appalachian State.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Marshall Thundering Herd” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/marshall-thundering-herd” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

The Herd have lost four consecutive games straight up and five straight against the spread. We’re a long way from when Charles Huff’s name was being bandied about as a hot name for Power Five head coach job openings.

Marshall’s offense has utterly collapsed. The Herd have turned the ball over 11 times during their losing streak and have been held to single-digit scoring outputs in back-to-back weeks.

The ground game can still hit home runs and ranks 20th in explosives, thanks to star running back Rasheen Ali. But almost every other metric is woeful for an offense that ranks 98th in SP+.

Just look at these ranks: Rushing Success (124th), Points Per Opportunity (115th), Havoc Allowed (99th), Passing Explosives (131st) and Passing Success (57th).

Quarterback Cam Fancher is doing the dinking and dunking and his 42.3 QBR ranks 104th in the country. Also, his 7:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio leaves a lot to be desired.

The good news for the Herd is that Appalachian State’s defense struggles and is pretty bad against the run.

Marshall’s defense has struggled under the weight of the poor offensive play. Last year’s top-10 SP+ unit has eroded and fallen to 66th.

The pass defense is still excellent, thanks to some hellacious pass rushers and star cornerback Micah Abraham, but the team is susceptible to big plays (126th in explosives allowed). Marshall does stiffen up in the red zone and is 11th in the nation in Finishing Drives.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”App State Mountaineers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/appalachian-state-mountaineers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Like the Herd, the Mountaineers are also on a five-game losing streak against the number. However, Appalachian State has managed to squeak out a pair of wins as double-digit favorites.

Appalachian State has the opposite split of Marshall as it pairs a fairly competent offense (46th in SP+) with a miserable defense (122nd).

The offense is powered by quarterback Joey Aguilar, a JUCO transfer with an audacious, “just having fun out there” mentality.

Aguilar has a 69.9 QBR, good for 32nd in the country, and a 20:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His receiving duo of Kaedin Robinson and Christian Horn have each eclipsed 450 yards on the season. This passing attack is 19th in success rate and 23rd in explosives.

Despite good yards-per-carry numbers for both Nate Noel (5.2) and Kanye Roberts (5.6), the rush offense is lagging in efficiency and checks in at 90th in the country in EPA/rush play.

The defense is particularly vulnerable on the ground and is outside the top 115 in both rushing success rate and defending rushing explosives.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Marshall and Appalachian State match up statistically:

Marshall Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Marshall Thundering Herd” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png” slug=”marshall-thundering-herd”][/teamlogo] Offense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”App State Mountaineers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” slug=”appalachian-state-mountaineers”][/teamlogo] Defense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo] Edge
Rush Success	124	120	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
Line Yards	129	130	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
Pass Success	57	56	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
Havoc	81	80	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
Finishing Drives	115	60	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Appalachian State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]
Quality Drives	124	82	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Appalachian State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]

Appalachian State Offense vs. Marshall Defense

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”App State Mountaineers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” slug=”appalachian-state-mountaineers”][/teamlogo] Offense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Marshall Thundering Herd” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png” slug=”marshall-thundering-herd”][/teamlogo] Defense	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo] Edge
Rush Success	79	21	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Marshall” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Line Yards	29	38	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Appalachian State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]
Pass Success	19	15	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
Havoc	22	31	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Appalachian State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]
Finishing Drives	79	11	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Marshall” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png”][/teamlogo]
Quality Drives	27	65	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Appalachian State” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]

Pace of Play / Other

	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Marshall Thundering Herd” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/marshall-thundering-herd-updated-logo-100.png” slug=”marshall-thundering-herd”][/teamlogo]	[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”App State Mountaineers” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png”][/teamlogo]
PFF Tackling	84	70
PFF Coverage	24	41
Special Teams SP+	116	55
Middle 8	70	26
Seconds per Play	25.1 (35)	25.3 (40)
Rush Rate	49.9% (103)	53.6% (46)

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Marshall vs Appalachian State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Appalachian State’s passing game against Marshall’s secondary is a matchup between two solid units. However, the other side of the ball is a stoppable force meeting a moveable object.

Both teams have struggled against the spread in recent weeks, but Appalachian State has displayed some competency and won a few games. Marshall is a falling knife right now and we’ve all been taught to never try and catch a falling knife.

I’ll take Appalachian State -3.5 at home, but won’t play it past -5.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: App State -3.5 (Play to -5)” linktext=”Bet App Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.402439949&selectionId=5105926&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]