Action Network

college football-odds-pick-ucf knights vs cincinnati bearcats-november 4

UCF vs Cincinnati Odds, Picks: Why to Bet the Knights

UCF vs Cincinnati Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ucf.png” awayname=”UCF” awayslug=”ucf-knights” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” homename=”Cincinnati” homeslug=”cincinnati-bearcats” date=”Saturday, Nov. 4″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”FS1″ col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-3.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”+3.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”60.5″ col2hometext=”60.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”-175″ col3hometext=”+145″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

What makes this matchup between the UCF Golden Knights and the Cincinnati Bearcats so interesting is that one team’s O has got to go. Both the Knights and Bearcats have started Big 12 play on five-game losing streaks.

UCF has a bit more dignity in its losing streak, as a chunk of it came without star starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. It still hasn’t won a game since he returned three weeks ago, but his ability could be an X-factor in this matchup.

As for Cincinnati, the Emory Jones experience has gone relatively well, as the well-traveled quarterback has played solid ball in black and red. However, some questions need to be answered on the other side of the ball.

So, which team will rise to the occasion and get back into the win column? Let’s take a closer look to find out.

_InlineAdBlock

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news, and analysis.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”UCF Knights” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ucf.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/ucf-knights” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

When you look at the Knights offensively, there’s not much to complain about. UCF has proven to have a dominant ground game behind running back RJ Harvey and Plumlee at quarterback.

Harvey has been a workhorse but has also been plenty efficient. He and the rest of the Knights backfield have combined to average 5.8 yards per carry, which is good for third in the country.

However, the legs to keep your eye on in this matchup are Plumlee’s. Now, with three games under his belt since returning from a knee injury, he appears to finally have the reins taken off after rushing for 45 yards last week.

Getting the chains moving on the ground will be just the start of UCF’s offense in this matchup, as it will need Plumlee’s arm to play a role as well. Cincy has been very vulnerable to big plays on offense, ranking 115th in yards per pass allowed.

As the rust finally appears to have come off Plumlee in all facets, we should expect him to terrorize this Cincinnati defense in every way possible.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Cincinnati Bearcats” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/cincinnati-bearcats” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

As I alluded to, Jones has been solid as a passer for the Bearcats this season. However, he’s been largely inefficient as a rusher, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.

His inefficiency on the ground has been a roadblock to the Bearcats offense, as starting running back Corey Kiner has averaged 5.4 yards per carry but has only seven more carries than Jones.

If Jones fails to get it going on the ground once again, it could quickly derail Cincy’s offense, especially when it’s wasting such a good matchup. UCF has been ravaged on the ground, ranking 121st in yards per rush allowed.

Realistically, the Bearcats have no excuse not to succeed against this UCF defense, but we have seen them consistently self-sabotage. The issue is that any stalled drive could put them behind in a hurry, as UCF has the talent and the tempo to capitalize on any extra possession.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”UCF vs Cincinnati” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ucf.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/ucf-knights” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cind.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/cincinnati-bearcats” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Cincinnati match up statistically:

UCF Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 38
Line Yards 31 28
Pass Success 27 110
Havoc 51 13
Finishing Drives 75 59
Quality Drives 30 99
Cincinnati Offense vs. UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 57 126
Line Yards 32 125
Pass Success 70 45
Havoc 39 102
Finishing Drives 77 108
Quality Drives 67 108
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 73 52
PFF Coverage 79 127
Special Teams SP+ 71 91
Middle 8 39 104
Seconds per Play 24.1 (17) 25.4 (44)
Rush Rate 58.1% (26) 58.4% (24)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”UCF vs Cincinnati” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

From a matchup perspective, both of these offenses should have no issue moving the ball. However, one of these offenses averages 31.3 points per game, and the other averages just 19.4.

There are more flaws on the Cincinnati side of the ball, and if the Bearcats get in their own way, this one could get out of hand like we’ve seen over the past five weeks.

Back the better offense to cover the spread here.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: UCF -3.5 or Better” linktext=”Bet UCF Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.402377281&selectionId=1004069&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

Posted

in

by

Doug Ziefel

Tags:

, , , ,