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Ball State vs Bowling Green Prediction, Pick | College Football Odds, Betting Preview (Nov. 1)

Ball State vs Bowling Green Odds

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Wednesday night’s MACtion college football showdown is an intriuging matchup that warrants a full breakdown with a Ball State vs. Bowling Green pick and prediction.

MACtion is woven into the very fabric of college football. It’s given us midweek offensive superstars like Byron Leftwich, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael “The Burner” Turner, Dan LeFevour, Jordan Lynch, Freddie Barnes, Dri Archer and scores of others.

But those offensive luminaries have faded from recent memory, and all that’s left is the broken-down offenses of 2023.

Nine of the 12 MAC teams are utilizing backup quarterbacks in a full-time role or timeshare. And when it comes to Ball State and Bowling Green on Wednesday night, these offenses are patchwork at best.

Ball State is buried in the 100s in nearly every meaningful offensive metric: Success Rate, explosiveness, Havoc Allowed and Points per Possession.

Bowling Green is capable of popping big plays — it ranks 34th in explosives — but when it comes to stringing together plays, it leaves a lot to be desired.

The combination of Connor Bazelak and Camden Orth has been a snore in MAC play. The two Falcon passers are averaging 85 passing yards per game in conference play with three passing touchdowns against five interceptions.

But before you close the app or browser window, allow me to reassure you that this game has a clear side that’s worth your attention.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Mike Neu had one breakthrough season in Muncie. His 2020 campaign, a 7-1 triumph, was the outlier.

What Neu and the program have been for the other seven seasons is, in a word, mediocre. Actually, that’s being kind. Removing that 2020 COVID-19 season, Neu and Ball State are 28-53 overall and 20-34 in MAC play.

But this is the MAC, where underdogs pull upsets with regularity. A big part of that is due to the utter lack of atmosphere at these midweek games. There’s no home-field advantage to speak of in this game, and despite Ball State’s offense being in dire straits, there are reasons to take the Cardinals seriously.

For starters, the game within the game here favors Ball State. Bowling Green can’t throw the football nor does it want to. But Ball State can stop the run. The Cardinals rank 44th in limiting explosive runs on the ground and are even better at corraling opposing passing games from hitting the big play.

That’s how they ground out a win two weeks ago against Central Michigan, 24-17. If they can turn this into a rock fight, their running game has the potential to swing this game in their favor.

Marquez Cooper remains one of the premier weapons in the MAC, and if game flow allows them to stick to the ground attack, he could be the difference here. He’s eclipsed 100 total yards in three of Ball State’s four conference games this year and is coming off of a breakout performance against CMU in which he ran for 162 yards and a touchdown.

It helps tremendously that Bowling Green’s run defense is horrific from a Success Rate perspective (111th).

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If you’ve figured out Bowling Green, you’re smarter than I.

The Falcons have a good loss (by 10 at Liberty), a wild upset (38-27 at GT) and a pair of humbling defeats (38-7 vs. Ohio and 27-0 vs. Miami (OH)) on their resume.

They’re good enough to throw scares into bowl teams, sometimes beating them outright. And they’re also inconsistent enough to get boat-raced by quality opponents.

A non-existent passing attack has created that kind of instability, and that won’t be changing Wednesday night.

What the Falcons will look to do is swing this game with big plays early. And to its credit, BGSU is great at generating big plays with a rank of 34th in that aread. If it jumps out to an early lead and forces Ball State to move away from Cooper and the running game, it’s in great shape.

If this becomes a rock fight, where the BGSU defense needs to consistently win at the line of scrimmage, well, then things get dicey.

There’s also the elephant in the room: Scot Loeffler. The embattled Bowling Green head coach has been dreadful at the window since arriving at the school. No program is worse against the closing number in the MAC since 2019 than BGSU. His 12-21 ATS record (36.4%) in conference play ranks 123rd in the country.

At the very least, we know that both Loeffler and his team will be giving this game their all because a win here could be the swing game between bowling and sitting at home during the holidays.

If he were to miss the postseason for the fourth time in five years, he’d likely be looking for a new job this spring.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Ball State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 111
Line Yards 38 96
Pass Success 98 93
Havoc 129 97
Finishing Drives 116 58
Quality Drives 93 68
Bowling Green Offense vs. Ball State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 76
Line Yards 96 68
Pass Success 114 98
Havoc 124 103
Finishing Drives 104 87
Quality Drives 111 111
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 49 27
PFF Coverage 110 54
Special Teams SP+ 101 121
Middle 8 93 27
Seconds per Play 29.4 (110) 31.3 (131)
Rush Rate 55.1% (54) 57.6% (33)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This spread is tricky because it’s likely we either see a Ball State outright win or a Bowling Green runaway. That’s how things have gone for the Falcons this season — boom or bust.

I’m playing a boom here and opting for the alternate line, playing Bowling Green all the way up to the edge of the key number of 10.

Pick: Bowling Green -9.5 (Alternate Line · +150)

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Mike Calabrese

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